Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)|90dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$95.00
+11.1%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$82.50
-3.5%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$60.50
-29.2%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$85.96
Resistance Level (R1)$98.41
Support Level (S1)$61.43
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 18%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary bull catalyst is the potential for an earnings surprise on February 12, specifically regarding the 'Vera Rubin' NVIDIA rollout and validation from existing Meta/Microsoft contracts. Historically, cloud infrastructure pivots that successfully secure NVIDIA capacity see rapid 20-40% upward re-ratings once capacity deployment is quantified. A recursive move back to the $94.50 level (the close from 3 weeks ago) would represent a 28% recovery from current levels, which is mathematically feasible given the stock's previous high-volatility moves.
Sentiment remains the tertiary driver; if NBIS can prove it is the 'top 2026 AI pick' as suggested by Seeking Alpha, institutional accumulation will resume. This would likely be triggered by a break back above the 20-day EMA at roughly $89.00. Risk factor: Further geopolitical scrutiny directed at Yandex-derivative entities could cap upside regardless of fundamentals. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $95.00 within the 3-month window.Base Case:The most likely scenario over the next 3 months is a period of high-volatility consolidation between $75.00 and $88.00 as the market digests the recent massive sell-off. The current price of $73.87 sits at a 2.8x forward P/S, which fundamental analysts consider 'attractive' relative to CoreWeave or IREN, providing a fundamental floor. The $73.52 low of the recent week serves as a pivot point; successfully defending this level during the February 12 earnings call would suggest a stabilization phase.
Additional support comes from the 2.5 GW of contracted power, which provides a tangible asset backing to the market cap. However, the overhead resistance at the $85.19-87.69 range (previous closes) will be difficult to breach without a market-wide recovery in tech sentiment. Risk factor: macro interest rate hikes could compress multiples further. I am 30% confident in a sideways recovery to $82.50 as long as the earnings call confirms the deployment roadmap.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the aggressive technical breakdown below the psychology-critical $80.00 level, which has triggered a 32% decline from the January peak of $108.73. With the current close at $73.87 being the absolute low of the 10-week cycle, the stock is in 'price discovery' mode to the downside. The failure of the CDLENGULFING pattern to find buyers signifies a total absence of near-term support. If the upcoming Q4 earnings report on February 12 fails to provide exact delivery dates for NVIDIA's NVL72 chips, the market will likely re-rate the stock toward its book value or lower cloud-peer multiples.
Secondary factors include the high execution risk inherent in transitioning from Yandex roots to a pure-play infrastructure provider and potential dilution if expansion capital requirements exceed current cash reserves. Risk factor: A sudden acquisition rumor or a massive earnings beat could squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident that the price will continue to drift toward the $60.00 support zone over the next 3 months as the hype-cycle for AI infrastructure cools and investors demand EBITDA over P/S growth.
Sentiment remains the tertiary driver; if NBIS can prove it is the 'top 2026 AI pick' as suggested by Seeking Alpha, institutional accumulation will resume. This would likely be triggered by a break back above the 20-day EMA at roughly $89.00. Risk factor: Further geopolitical scrutiny directed at Yandex-derivative entities could cap upside regardless of fundamentals. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $95.00 within the 3-month window.Base Case:The most likely scenario over the next 3 months is a period of high-volatility consolidation between $75.00 and $88.00 as the market digests the recent massive sell-off. The current price of $73.87 sits at a 2.8x forward P/S, which fundamental analysts consider 'attractive' relative to CoreWeave or IREN, providing a fundamental floor. The $73.52 low of the recent week serves as a pivot point; successfully defending this level during the February 12 earnings call would suggest a stabilization phase.
Additional support comes from the 2.5 GW of contracted power, which provides a tangible asset backing to the market cap. However, the overhead resistance at the $85.19-87.69 range (previous closes) will be difficult to breach without a market-wide recovery in tech sentiment. Risk factor: macro interest rate hikes could compress multiples further. I am 30% confident in a sideways recovery to $82.50 as long as the earnings call confirms the deployment roadmap.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the aggressive technical breakdown below the psychology-critical $80.00 level, which has triggered a 32% decline from the January peak of $108.73. With the current close at $73.87 being the absolute low of the 10-week cycle, the stock is in 'price discovery' mode to the downside. The failure of the CDLENGULFING pattern to find buyers signifies a total absence of near-term support. If the upcoming Q4 earnings report on February 12 fails to provide exact delivery dates for NVIDIA's NVL72 chips, the market will likely re-rate the stock toward its book value or lower cloud-peer multiples.
Secondary factors include the high execution risk inherent in transitioning from Yandex roots to a pure-play infrastructure provider and potential dilution if expansion capital requirements exceed current cash reserves. Risk factor: A sudden acquisition rumor or a massive earnings beat could squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident that the price will continue to drift toward the $60.00 support zone over the next 3 months as the hype-cycle for AI infrastructure cools and investors demand EBITDA over P/S growth.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 1 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketWatch | TipRanks | WallStreetZen
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.75 (Positive)
- Analysts suggest a 44% upside potential into Q4 earnings, driven by a capacity ramp and a compelling valuation of less than 2.8x forward Price-to-Sales (P/S).
- The February 12 earnings report is a critical catalyst, with expectations for explosive FY25 revenue growth and updates on the Vera Rubin NVL72 chip launch.
- Strategic contracts with Microsoft and Meta are actively powering AI capacity expansion, significantly de-risking the company's revenue profile.
- A recent 30% technical correction is viewed as a buying opportunity, as hyperscaler contracts and a $20B+ backlog de-risk long-term operational execution.
- Revenue growth is currently limited by 'energizable supply' rather than demand, with 2.5 GW of secured power providing a long-term growth ceiling.
- Significant downside risks include potential shifts in US datacenter energy policies and identified ICFR internal control weaknesses that could pressure margins.
- Nebius has transitioned from a 'speculative narrative' stock to an execution-led growth story for 2026, utilizing its net-cash flexibility to convert power to revenue faster.
- Institutional interest is rising following a period of consolidation, with market sentiment shifting toward the stock as a long-term winner in AI infrastructure.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$93.32
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
46.46
Volume
+35% above avg
*Watch for short below $61.43 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 06, 2026 | 05:09 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Volume-Price Divergence and Volatility ExpansionOn the most recent trading session, price closed at 98.04 on 61.3M volume, following a significant low of 75.25 and 75.9M volume two sessions prior. This 23% recovery from intraday lows on elevated volume indicates aggressive dip-buying and institutional accumulation ahead of the upcoming Q4 earnings report on February 12.
- Failed Bearish Engulfing PatternA CDLENGULFING pattern was detected during the recent volatile period but yielded a 0% success rate for bears. The failure of this pattern to catalyze a downtrend, coupled with a recovery from the 73.52-75.25 support zone, suggests a shift in market structure from bearish containment to a bullish volatility regime.
- Critical Resistance Test at Psych LevelPrice action shows a significant supply zone between 104.47 and 110.50. Despite multiple intraday spikes above 100.00, the stock has struggled to maintain closing prices above this psychological threshold. A sustained breakout above 110.50 on high volume is required to confirm the next leg of the AI infrastructure-driven rally.
- Aggressive Mean Reversion from Extreme LowsAfter hitting a period low of 73.52, the stock rallied to 98.04 within ten sessions, representing a 33% move. This rapid mean reversion indicates high beta characteristics and suggests that the 8x sales valuation is being supported by the 2.5 GW contracted power roadmap and strategic NVIDIA GPU partnerships.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Completion of Mid-Atlantic Distribution Center ExpansionTBD
- Product Roadmap Update - Artificial Intelligence Integration Phase II2026-05-10
- Annual Shareholders Meeting2026-04-15
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-24
- Expected Ex-Dividend Date2026-02-12