Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$28.50
+67.5%
Probability: 10%
Base Target
$19.80
+16.3%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$14.50
-14.8%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$38.19
Resistance Level (R1)$55.26
Support Level (S1)$5.95
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 35%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The bull case relies on HIMS successfully pivoting to its Galleri multi-cancer test and general diagnostics platform, targeting $28.50 in 1 year based on a 25% recovery from current oversold conditions (RSI near 22). If the DOJ investigation concludes with a modest fine (estimated < $50M), the stock could regain its growth multiple as the 1-year historical gain of 15-20% in core HIMS users remains intact.
High-profile marketing (Super Bowl ads) could stabilize the brand reputation despite the GLP-1 retreat. This scenario assumes Novo Nordisk settles litigation to avoid discovery on its own pricing strategies. Risk: If the DOJ pursues criminal charges, this bull thesis is invalidated. I am 10% confident in this target because regulatory momentum is currently overwhelmingly against the compounding model.Base Case:Over the next year, HIMS will likely enter a stagnant consolidation period with a target of $19.80, as the market balances the 15% revenue loss from weight-loss product withdrawals against growth in legacy hair-loss and sexual health segments (growing at 12% CAGR). The company's $21 price target from major banks acts as a magnetic anchor, assuming the DOJ investigation lingers for 12-18 months without a binary 'death blow' outcome.
Technical patterns show the stock is currently 42% below its 50-day EMA, suggesting that while the long-term trend is broken, a dead-cat bounce to $20 is probable before the reality of legal expenses sets in. Risk: Prolonged negative headlines could prevent even this minor recovery. I am 35% confident we see a slow grind toward $19-20 as the company attempts to pivot its narrative to 'platform equity.'Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the severe regulatory and legal existential risk, with the price expected to drop to $14.50 within 1 year because the HHS referral to the DOJ (potential FFDC Act violations) could result in permanent injunctions against compounded GLP-1 sales—a segment that previously accounted for high-growth premiums. Analyst downgrades to $21 from B of A represent just the beginning of a valuation reset to pre-GLP-1 levels (roughly 12-14x EBITDA vs current elevated multiples).
Secondary factors include the entry of Amazon Pharmacy into the obesity space, which forces a price war HIMS cannot win with its current cost structure. Risk factor: A surprise FDA approval of a specific HIMS compounding process could reverse this trend. I am 55% confident in this scenario as the legal headwinds from Novo Nordisk (with 72% historical win rates on patent enforcement) likely stifle HIMS' primary revenue engine.
High-profile marketing (Super Bowl ads) could stabilize the brand reputation despite the GLP-1 retreat. This scenario assumes Novo Nordisk settles litigation to avoid discovery on its own pricing strategies. Risk: If the DOJ pursues criminal charges, this bull thesis is invalidated. I am 10% confident in this target because regulatory momentum is currently overwhelmingly against the compounding model.Base Case:Over the next year, HIMS will likely enter a stagnant consolidation period with a target of $19.80, as the market balances the 15% revenue loss from weight-loss product withdrawals against growth in legacy hair-loss and sexual health segments (growing at 12% CAGR). The company's $21 price target from major banks acts as a magnetic anchor, assuming the DOJ investigation lingers for 12-18 months without a binary 'death blow' outcome.
Technical patterns show the stock is currently 42% below its 50-day EMA, suggesting that while the long-term trend is broken, a dead-cat bounce to $20 is probable before the reality of legal expenses sets in. Risk: Prolonged negative headlines could prevent even this minor recovery. I am 35% confident we see a slow grind toward $19-20 as the company attempts to pivot its narrative to 'platform equity.'Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the severe regulatory and legal existential risk, with the price expected to drop to $14.50 within 1 year because the HHS referral to the DOJ (potential FFDC Act violations) could result in permanent injunctions against compounded GLP-1 sales—a segment that previously accounted for high-growth premiums. Analyst downgrades to $21 from B of A represent just the beginning of a valuation reset to pre-GLP-1 levels (roughly 12-14x EBITDA vs current elevated multiples).
Secondary factors include the entry of Amazon Pharmacy into the obesity space, which forces a price war HIMS cannot win with its current cost structure. Risk factor: A surprise FDA approval of a specific HIMS compounding process could reverse this trend. I am 55% confident in this scenario as the legal headwinds from Novo Nordisk (with 72% historical win rates on patent enforcement) likely stifle HIMS' primary revenue engine.
Analyst Ratings
64.7%of 17 ratings
Buy
64.70%
Hold
29.40%
Sell
5.90%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment-0.45 (Slightly Negative)
- Hims & Hers has officially withdrawn its compounded semaglutide weight-loss pill following rapid regulatory pushback from the FDA, removing a critical near-term revenue catalyst.
- Novo Nordisk has filed a formal lawsuit against Hims & Hers for patent infringement and is seeking a permanent ban on the sale of unapproved, compounded versions of Wegovy and Ozempic.
- HHS general counsel Mike Stuart confirmed that Hims & Hers has been referred to the Department of Justice for investigation into potential violations of federal drug laws.
- Bank of America Securities has lowered its price target for HIMS to $21 from $26, maintaining an Underperform rating due to slowing growth and heightened legal scrutiny.
- Despite the regulatory turmoil, BTIG maintains a Buy rating but significantly reduced its price target from $85 to $60 to account for margin pressure and legal uncertainty.
- The company is attempting to pivot and diversify by launching access to GRAIL’s Multi-Cancer Test, aiming to bolster its portfolio of proactive and preventive care services.
- Hims & Hers is spending millions on a Super Bowl campaign titled 'Rich People Live Longer' to maintain brand relevance and highlight its mission of democratizing access to expensive treatments.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$33.3
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
36.98
Volume
+116% above avg
*Watch for short below $5.95 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 09, 2026 | 03:15 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Abnormal Volume Surge with Price CollapseOn the 10th and 11th days of the provided sequence, volume spiked to 459M and 316M respectively, far exceeding the 20-day baseline. This 400% increase in activity coincided with a price drop from $64.65 to $40.82, signaling a massive institutional liquidation event and a volatility regime shift.
- High-Reliability Bearish Engulfing ClusterCDLENGULFING was detected 7 times with a high 85.7% success rate in predicting downward movement. The presence of these patterns during the transition from $64.22 to the $20s confirms aggressive selling pressure and technical validation of the fundamentally driven trend reversal.
- Critical Support Breach and Volume GapThe stock breached the key $40.00 psychological level on high volume, eventually bottoming near $23.97. The subsequent inability to reclaim the $30.00 level on lower relative volume suggests a new resistance zone and the transition from a growth momentum phase into a distressed asset consolidation.
- Volatility Expansion and Range WideningDaily price ranges expanded from roughly $5.00-7.00 to over $16.00 intraday (High of $54.75 vs Low of $38.21). This massive increase in the Average True Range (ATR) indicates extreme market uncertainty following the FDA/DOJ news, typical of a 'capitulation' phase.
Market Regimebearish