Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)|1dModal Stance
bullish
Probability Score50%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$253.45
-0.2%
Probability: 50%
Base Target
$251.10
-1.1%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$248.65
-2.1%
Probability: 15%
Pivot$239.36
Resistance Level (R1)$278.91
Support Level (S1)$211.75
Chance of breaking R1 in 72h: 0%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver is the bullish momentum signaled by the successful Morning Star pattern and the higher low established at $251.15 in the final 5 periods of data. Piper Sandler's recent target increase to $300 and the $1 billion Riot Platforms deal provide a fundamental floor that incentivizes 'buying the dip.' The data shows price action moving from a local low of $250.36 to a steady close above $251.20, representing a recovery that has historically led to a test of the previous session's high ($251.56) within 24 hours.
Secondary factors include the 80% projected CAGR in AI revenues which attracts momentum buyers during any period of stability. The RSI remains in neutral territory (not yet overbought), and the consistent demand seen at $251.10 during the final two hours suggests accumulation. Significant resistance sits at $251.56; a break above this on volume would target the $254 psychological level. Risk: Any negative geopolitical news regarding China export bans could invalidate this momentum. I'm 50% confident that bullish sentiment prevails, pushing the price to $253.45.Base Case:The primary driver is the strong consolidation pattern between $250.90 and $251.30, where 35% of recent 1-hour sessions have closed. This range-bound behavior is supported by the CDLDOJI signals (detected 5 times with 60% success), suggesting a temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears as the market digests the Wells Fargo $345 price target against macroeconomic tariff fears. The price is currently tightly wound around the VWAP, indicating a lack of directional conviction before the February 3rd earnings event.
Secondary factors include the balance between AMD's server CPU market share gains and the headwind of cloud hyperscalers developing internal chips. Historically, when AMD enters a low-volume consolidation phase like the one observed in the last 10 periods (averaging under 4,500 units), the price remains within a 0.5% deviation for the following 24 hours. Risk: If volatility in the broader Nasdaq (QQQ) spikes, AMD will likely break this range. I'm 35% confident we see $251.10 as the market stays in 'wait-and-see' mode.Bear Case:The primary driver for a bearish outcome is the intraday failure to maintain the $251.50 level combined with a 'sell the news' reaction regarding Microsoft's in-house Maia 200 silicon. Technical data shows that despite hitting an intraday high of $251.56, the price closed at $251.20, forming a series of long upper shadows which indicate significant selling pressure at previous resistance levels. With the 25% tariff uncertainty looming over advanced AI chips, short-term traders are likely to lock in profits following the 100% annual outperformance relative to the SOXX ETF.
Secondary factors include the declining volume on the latest price peaks (dropping from 79k units to average 5k levels), which suggests a lack of institutional 'follow-through' at these valuations. If the immediate support at $250.80 (the most frequent consolidation level in the last 48 periods) fails to hold, we can expect a retracement to the $248.50 zone. Risk factor: A sudden positive leak regarding the Feb 3rd earnings report could prevent this dip. I'm 15% confident in a move toward $248.65.
Secondary factors include the 80% projected CAGR in AI revenues which attracts momentum buyers during any period of stability. The RSI remains in neutral territory (not yet overbought), and the consistent demand seen at $251.10 during the final two hours suggests accumulation. Significant resistance sits at $251.56; a break above this on volume would target the $254 psychological level. Risk: Any negative geopolitical news regarding China export bans could invalidate this momentum. I'm 50% confident that bullish sentiment prevails, pushing the price to $253.45.Base Case:The primary driver is the strong consolidation pattern between $250.90 and $251.30, where 35% of recent 1-hour sessions have closed. This range-bound behavior is supported by the CDLDOJI signals (detected 5 times with 60% success), suggesting a temporary equilibrium between bulls and bears as the market digests the Wells Fargo $345 price target against macroeconomic tariff fears. The price is currently tightly wound around the VWAP, indicating a lack of directional conviction before the February 3rd earnings event.
Secondary factors include the balance between AMD's server CPU market share gains and the headwind of cloud hyperscalers developing internal chips. Historically, when AMD enters a low-volume consolidation phase like the one observed in the last 10 periods (averaging under 4,500 units), the price remains within a 0.5% deviation for the following 24 hours. Risk: If volatility in the broader Nasdaq (QQQ) spikes, AMD will likely break this range. I'm 35% confident we see $251.10 as the market stays in 'wait-and-see' mode.Bear Case:The primary driver for a bearish outcome is the intraday failure to maintain the $251.50 level combined with a 'sell the news' reaction regarding Microsoft's in-house Maia 200 silicon. Technical data shows that despite hitting an intraday high of $251.56, the price closed at $251.20, forming a series of long upper shadows which indicate significant selling pressure at previous resistance levels. With the 25% tariff uncertainty looming over advanced AI chips, short-term traders are likely to lock in profits following the 100% annual outperformance relative to the SOXX ETF.
Secondary factors include the declining volume on the latest price peaks (dropping from 79k units to average 5k levels), which suggests a lack of institutional 'follow-through' at these valuations. If the immediate support at $250.80 (the most frequent consolidation level in the last 48 periods) fails to hold, we can expect a retracement to the $248.50 zone. Risk factor: A sudden positive leak regarding the Feb 3rd earnings report could prevent this dip. I'm 15% confident in a move toward $248.65.
Analyst Ratings
78.0%of 50 ratings
Buy
78.00%
Hold
20.00%
Sell
2.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.68 (Positive)
- Piper Sandler raised AMD's price target to $300 from $280, reaffirming an Overweight rating based on strong 2026 growth prospects in the AI compute sector.
- AMD secured a landmark 10-year, 25MW data center hosting deal with Riot Platforms that includes extension options potentially worth $1 billion in total revenue.
- Wells Fargo reiterated an Overweight rating with an eye-popping $345 price target, identifying AMD as the top beneficiary of a sustained data center compute boom.
- The Trump administration has imposed 25% tariffs on certain advanced chips, including AMD's MI325X, creating a potential cost headwind for domestic supply chains.
- A strategic collaboration with Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) aims to upskill engineers on AMD’s architecture to accelerate enterprise adoption of EPYC and Instinct hardware.
- Microsoft unveiled its internal Maia 200 AI chip to reduce reliance on merchant silicon, triggering a 3.3% temporary decline in AMD shares due to competitive concerns.
- AMD management is targeting an 80% CAGR in AI-related revenues as the Helios platform and new Instinct GPUs gain traction with hyperscale cloud providers.
- AMD is launching the Ryzen 7 9850X3D gaming processor on January 29 at a $499 price point, aiming to maintain its dominance in high-performance consumer computing.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$220.99
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
51.35
Volume
-14% below avg
*Watch for entry above $278.91 resistance breakout
Analysis Date
Jan 27, 2026 | 04:08 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volume Anomaly and Liquidity SpikeA massive volume spike occurred on the 19th data point, recording 79,123 shares which is approximately 11.5x the 20-period average of 6,839 shares. This extreme surge coincided with a localized price peak at 251.31, suggesting a climactic exhaust move or heavy institutional distribution at the 251.30 resistance level.
- Candlestick Pattern Reliability DivergenceTechnical analysis shows a CDLMORNINGSTAR success rate of 100% and a CDLDOJI success rate of 60% (3/5), while the CDLENGULFING pattern failed 80% of the time. This indicates that AMD responds better to exhaustion and reversal patterns rather than momentum-based engulfing moves in the current low-volatility environment.
- Tight Price Compression and Range ConsolidationThe stock is trapped in a narrow $0.95 range between 250.36 and 251.31 over the last 20 intervals. Both the opening price of 250.60 and the final closing price of 250.57 show near-zero net movement, signaling an imminent volatility expansion as the current compression regime is unsustainable.
- Multi-Point Resistance at 251.31The price level of 251.31 has acted as a hard ceiling, being tested and rejected five times in the latter half of the data set. The repeated failure to break this level despite the massive 79,123 volume spike confirms a significant supply zone that must be cleared to validate the targets of $300-$345.
Market Regimebullish
Upcoming Catalysts
- AMD Annual Meeting of StockholdersTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-04-28
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-03 / 2026-03-05
- Susquehanna 15th Annual Technology Conference2026-02-26
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-01-27