Opendoor Technologies Inc (OPEN)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score52%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$11.50
+146.3%
Probability: 13%
Base Target
$5.40
+15.6%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$2.85
-39.0%
Probability: 52%
Pivot$5.36
Resistance Level (R1)$10.20
Support Level (S1)$0.16
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 1%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The bull case is centered on a successful 'AI-supercycle' transition for real estate, where Opendoor's asset-light model achieves unit-economic profitability by the Q4 2025 earnings report. High institutional interest, evidenced by the new SRx Health Solutions stake, suggests that 'smart money' is positioning for a massive short squeeze; with the stock down over 50% from its 52-week high, a mean reversion to the $9.00 level represents significant upside. Housing supply shortages and the bipartisan housing package could create a tailwind for technocentric platforms that can scale faster than traditional agents.
Technically, the CDLHAMMER pattern has a 100% success rate on this ticker (3 for 3), indicating that when buyers do step in at support, the reversals are violent and profitable. A break above the $7.00 resistance level would trigger a technical 'cup and handle' or bottoming formation. Risk: Further dilution from equity offerings to stay afloat could cap any rally. I am 13% confident that over the next year, OPEN will reach $11.50 as it regains its status as a high-growth tech darling.Base Case:The base case is driven by the stabilizing effect of the new CEO's strategic AI reset and the recent $200 million refinancing, which delays immediate liquidity concerns. Although the stock has suffered a significant drawdown, the current price of $4.69 is approaching historical support levels seen in early 2025 (approx. $1.34-$2.54 range), suggesting the rate of decline will likely decelerate. Market sentiment is currently at an extreme low, but the endorsement of federal housing affordability initiatives provides a fundamental floor for the real estate tech sector.
Revenue growth from construction-led expansion and AI-driven pricing accuracy should eventually offset the high-burn iBuying legacy costs. Historical volatility for OPEN suggests wide swings, but over the next 11 months, a return to a more sustainable P/S ratio is expected as the 'Amazon of housing' narrative matures. Risk: A broader recession in the single-family housing market would invalidate this stabilization thesis. I am 35% confident we see a moderate recovery to $5.40 within 1 year as the business model transition begins to show preliminary data in 2026.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the persistent cash burn and negative 6.7% profit margin, which has already forced the stock into a 51% decline from its September highs of $9.57. With operating cash flow burning $595 million annually, the current $962 million cash position provides less than 2 years of runway without further dilutive equity raises, such as the $200 million raise recently executed. The housing market remains under pressure from restrictive mortgage rates and legislative risks, specifically executive orders aimed at curbing institutional home buying which could shrink the company's buy-side liquidity.
Technical indicators show a dominant 'Lower High, Lower Low' structure on the weekly timeframe, with the price now trading below all major moving averages. Historical success rates for bullish patterns like Dojis remain at 0% for this ticker over the last year, confirming a lack of accumulation. Risk: Rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts could suddenly lower borrowing costs and rescue the iBuying model. I am 52% confident that over the next 11 months, the price will decline to $2.85 as the market prices in continued structural unprofitability.
Technically, the CDLHAMMER pattern has a 100% success rate on this ticker (3 for 3), indicating that when buyers do step in at support, the reversals are violent and profitable. A break above the $7.00 resistance level would trigger a technical 'cup and handle' or bottoming formation. Risk: Further dilution from equity offerings to stay afloat could cap any rally. I am 13% confident that over the next year, OPEN will reach $11.50 as it regains its status as a high-growth tech darling.Base Case:The base case is driven by the stabilizing effect of the new CEO's strategic AI reset and the recent $200 million refinancing, which delays immediate liquidity concerns. Although the stock has suffered a significant drawdown, the current price of $4.69 is approaching historical support levels seen in early 2025 (approx. $1.34-$2.54 range), suggesting the rate of decline will likely decelerate. Market sentiment is currently at an extreme low, but the endorsement of federal housing affordability initiatives provides a fundamental floor for the real estate tech sector.
Revenue growth from construction-led expansion and AI-driven pricing accuracy should eventually offset the high-burn iBuying legacy costs. Historical volatility for OPEN suggests wide swings, but over the next 11 months, a return to a more sustainable P/S ratio is expected as the 'Amazon of housing' narrative matures. Risk: A broader recession in the single-family housing market would invalidate this stabilization thesis. I am 35% confident we see a moderate recovery to $5.40 within 1 year as the business model transition begins to show preliminary data in 2026.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the persistent cash burn and negative 6.7% profit margin, which has already forced the stock into a 51% decline from its September highs of $9.57. With operating cash flow burning $595 million annually, the current $962 million cash position provides less than 2 years of runway without further dilutive equity raises, such as the $200 million raise recently executed. The housing market remains under pressure from restrictive mortgage rates and legislative risks, specifically executive orders aimed at curbing institutional home buying which could shrink the company's buy-side liquidity.
Technical indicators show a dominant 'Lower High, Lower Low' structure on the weekly timeframe, with the price now trading below all major moving averages. Historical success rates for bullish patterns like Dojis remain at 0% for this ticker over the last year, confirming a lack of accumulation. Risk: Rapid Federal Reserve rate cuts could suddenly lower borrowing costs and rescue the iBuying model. I am 52% confident that over the next 11 months, the price will decline to $2.85 as the market prices in continued structural unprofitability.
Analyst Ratings
54.5%of 11 ratings
Buy
18.20%
Hold
54.50%
Sell
27.30%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | WallStreetZen | Yahoo Finance
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.35 (Slightly Positive)
- Opendoor is scheduled to report its Q4 and full-year 2025 financial results on February 19, 2026, which will provide a critical update on the company's financial health and strategic progress.
- New CEO Kaz Nejatian has initiated a major 'AI Reset,' reworking how the company sources and prices homes to achieve institutional scale and reduce execution risk.
- SRx Health Solutions recently disclosed a new investment in Opendoor common stock, citing the company as undervalued and part of a broader capital allocation strategy.
- The company raised $200 million in equity to refinance its 2030 notes, successfully managing debt despite holding nearly $1 billion in cash reserves.
- Bearish analysts warn of a 42% downside, highlighting that the company burned $595 million in operating cash flow in 2024 with a negative 6.7% profit margin.
- CEO Kaz Nejatian has publicly endorsed federal policies aimed at limiting institutional single-family home purchases, aligning the company with middle-class affordability initiatives.
- Options market data shows a steepening put-call skew, suggesting that despite call dominance, there is increasing demand for downside protection among investors.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$6.33
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
44.75
Volume
-10% below avg
*Watch for short below $0.16 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 11, 2026 | 04:17 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Reliable Hammer Reversal SignatureTechnical analysis identified CDLHAMMER 3 times in 20 days with a 100% success rate. These bottoming signals coincide with the stock's recovery from its low of 0.4920 to the recent close of 1.3400, marking a significant structural floor and trend reversal.
- Extreme Volume Expansion on Price BreakoutDaily volume surged to 624.8M shares during the initial 0.8710 high, later stabilizing above 200M shares as price climbed from 0.5345 to 1.3400. This sustained 150% volume growth during price appreciation indicates strong institutional akumulation ahead of the February 19 earnings catalyst.
- Parabolic Momentum with Resistance TestPrice moved from 0.7790 to 1.3400 in 20 sessions, a 72% increase, testing psychological resistance at 1.50 with a high of 1.5387. The aggressive move away from the 0.50 level suggests a volatility regime shift from a penny-stock range to a speculative momentum play.
- Engulfing Pattern VolatilityCDLENGULFING was detected 6 times with a 50% success rate, indicating intense battles between bulls and bears. This frequent pattern presence, combined with a negative 6.7% profit margin, suggests high intraday volatility as the market reprices the stock's transition to an asset-light model.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Shareholder Meeting2026-06-15
- Q1 2026 Earnings Call2026-05-07
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-19