Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$242.00
+63.8%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$168.50
+14.0%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$95.00
-35.7%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$140.47
Resistance Level (R1)$214.81
Support Level (S1)$73.41
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 14%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:Hyper-growth in the U.S. commercial segment exceeding 150% YoY would be the primary catalyst, effectively turning PLTR into the 'operating system' for modern enterprise AI. If revenue surpasses the $1.41 billion quarterly run rate consistently, the stock could realistically retest its $200+ highs and trend toward analyst targets of $235. Historical data for 'category killers' in the software space shows that move-to-earnings ratios can stay elevated for 24-36 months during the peak adoption phase of a new technological cycle.
Strong sovereign AI demand from European and Asian governments provides a high-margin floor for this bullish narrative. Risk: Potential over-reliance on a few mega-deals like HD Hyundai could create lumpy revenue recognition. I am 15% confident in a $242.00 target over the next year, assuming Palantir maintains its current 'orchestration layer' lead over Salesforce and ServiceNow.Base Case:The most likely driver for the base case is a steady expansion into the S&P 500 and continued institutional accumulation, supporting a price target that matches the 61% YoY growth guidance for 2026. This trajectory accounts for the stock digesting its recent parabolic gains and consolidating between $160 and $180 as it converts trial 'bootcamps' into long-term enterprise contracts. The AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption rate suggests a steady 12% annual appreciation in share value as earnings catch up to the current premium.
Secondary support comes from the multi-year deal with HD Hyundai and expanded EMEA footprint, which diversify the revenue base. A key risk is the broader software sector weakness which could drag PLTR's multiple down even if it performs well. I am 30% confident the stock will reach $168.50 over the next year because the fundamental 'AI trade' remains intact despite high valuation.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is valuation compression from the current 140x forward P/E to a more sustainable 50x as high-interest rates persist through the next year. This would likely be triggered if the 115% U.S. commercial revenue guidance slows to sub-45% levels, causing a massive re-rating of the stock. Historically, software giants that trade above 100x earnings face median drawdowns of 40% when growth deceleration is first detected in quarterly filings.
Regulatory headwinds regarding ICE contracts and saturation in the government sector also present a 15% headwind to total revenue. Risk factor: A surprise acceleration in government AI spending due to geopolitical tensions in Korea/EMEA could provide an unexpected floor. I am 55% confident that the current 'priced for perfection' environment will face a significant correction toward $95.00 within 1 year as retail momentum fades.
Strong sovereign AI demand from European and Asian governments provides a high-margin floor for this bullish narrative. Risk: Potential over-reliance on a few mega-deals like HD Hyundai could create lumpy revenue recognition. I am 15% confident in a $242.00 target over the next year, assuming Palantir maintains its current 'orchestration layer' lead over Salesforce and ServiceNow.Base Case:The most likely driver for the base case is a steady expansion into the S&P 500 and continued institutional accumulation, supporting a price target that matches the 61% YoY growth guidance for 2026. This trajectory accounts for the stock digesting its recent parabolic gains and consolidating between $160 and $180 as it converts trial 'bootcamps' into long-term enterprise contracts. The AIP (Artificial Intelligence Platform) adoption rate suggests a steady 12% annual appreciation in share value as earnings catch up to the current premium.
Secondary support comes from the multi-year deal with HD Hyundai and expanded EMEA footprint, which diversify the revenue base. A key risk is the broader software sector weakness which could drag PLTR's multiple down even if it performs well. I am 30% confident the stock will reach $168.50 over the next year because the fundamental 'AI trade' remains intact despite high valuation.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is valuation compression from the current 140x forward P/E to a more sustainable 50x as high-interest rates persist through the next year. This would likely be triggered if the 115% U.S. commercial revenue guidance slows to sub-45% levels, causing a massive re-rating of the stock. Historically, software giants that trade above 100x earnings face median drawdowns of 40% when growth deceleration is first detected in quarterly filings.
Regulatory headwinds regarding ICE contracts and saturation in the government sector also present a 15% headwind to total revenue. Risk factor: A surprise acceleration in government AI spending due to geopolitical tensions in Korea/EMEA could provide an unexpected floor. I am 55% confident that the current 'priced for perfection' environment will face a significant correction toward $95.00 within 1 year as retail momentum fades.
Analyst Ratings
42.1%of 19 ratings
Buy
26.30%
Hold
42.10%
Sell
31.60%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment+0.85 (Positive)
- Palantir reported record Q4 revenue of $1.41 billion, representing 70% YoY growth, while U.S. Commercial revenue skyrocketed by 137% in the same period.
- Management issued aggressive FY 2026 revenue guidance of 61% YoY growth, with next quarter's midpoint revenue estimate of $1.53 billion exceeding consensus by 15.3%.
- The company clinched a major expansion deal with HD Hyundai worth hundreds of millions of dollars to implement AI software group-wide across shipbuilding and robotics.
- Citi increased its price target on PLTR from $201 to $235, maintaining a Buy rating ahead of what it correctly anticipated would be a record-breaking quarter.
- Sovereign AI has selected Palantir and Accenture to lead the rollout of next-generation, sovereign-grade AI data centers across the EMEA region using Dell and NVIDIA hardware.
- Despite the earnings beat, the stock trades at roughly 142 times expected earnings, making it one of the most expensive and volatile names in the S&P 500.
- CEO Alex Karp is increasingly public in defending the company's surveillance technology, arguing that AI actually 'bolsters civil liberties' in high-stakes government applications.
- Palantir is specifically named as a key vendor for the U.S. government's $151 billion 'Golden Dome' project, joining major defense players like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$174.83
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
46.81
Volume
+86% above avg
*Watch for short below $73.41 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 02, 2026 | 11:24 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Bullish Engulfing Pattern Success RateThe technical analysis identifies 7 occurrences of the CDLENGULFING pattern with an 85.7% success rate (6 out of 7). Combined with recent earnings strength, this suggests that the current price action following the low of $72.67 into the $137.40 peak is driven by highly reliable institutional accumulation phases.
- Extreme Volatility Expansion and Volume ClimaxThe historical data reveals a massive volume spike reaching 720.2M shares on a session where price fluctuated from $78.47 to $116.30. This represents a significant deviation from the standard 300M-500M range, signaling a volatility regime change as Palantir decouples from the broader software sector's weakness.
- Price Target Gap and Overvaluation RiskThe stock is currently trading at $137.40, yet analyst price targets from Citigroup ($235) and Phillip Securities ($208) suggest a 51% to 71% upside gap. However, the forward P/E exceeding 140x indicates a 'priced for perfection' anomaly where any growth below the projected 115% U.S. commercial surge could trigger a sharp reversal.
- Structural Support and Momentum DivergenceAfter hitting a significant low of $66.12, the stock has established a higher-low structure at $72.67 and $78.58, followed by an aggressive rally to $137.40. This parabolic move represents a breakout from previous consolidation ranges, though the $200 level remains a primary psychological and technical resistance point for short-term momentum.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual General Meeting of ShareholdersTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-05-04 / 2026-05-11
- FY 2025 Annual Report (Form 10-K) Filing2026-03-15
- AIPCon North America - Customer Showcase2026-03-12
- Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call2026-02-09