Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$42.00
+82.5%
Probability: 10%
Base Target
$26.50
+15.1%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$14.50
-37.0%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$38.19
Resistance Level (R1)$55.26
Support Level (S1)$5.95
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 30%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The bull case relies on HIMS' $49 price point effectively commoditizing the weight-loss market, capturing millions of price-sensitive customers that big pharma cannot reach. If the company successfully navigates the 'illegal mass compounding' allegations by proving clinical necessity for their specific oral formulations, revenue could exceed consensus estimates by 25-30%. The current price of $23 represents a significant discount to historical PE and Price-to-Sales ratios seen earlier this year when the stock traded above $60.
Strong insider buying or a strategic buyout from a larger telehealth provider could also trigger a rapid re-rating. While technicals are currently broken, the historical success rate of candlestick reversals (CDLENGULFING at 85.7%) suggests that once a bottom signal is printed, the move back to the $40 resistance level can happen quickly. Risk: Continued legal expense drain. I'm 10% confident in a reach toward $42.00 by next year only if regulatory clouds completely dissipate.Base Case:The core business outside of GLP-1 compounding remains healthy, growing revenue at a 50% year-over-year clip, which should provide a valuation floor around the $25-$28 level. Over the next year, HIMS will likely transition its narrative from 'GLP-1 growth' to 'diversified healthcare platform' featuring its Grail partnership for cancer screening and UK/Canada expansions. This diversification prevents a total stock collapse but limits upside as the market waits for legal clarity.
Historically, high-growth healthcare stocks consolidate for 8-12 months following a major regulatory shock. With the current RSI suggesting near-oversold conditions, a period of sideways accumulation between $20 and $30 is the most likely outcome. Risk factor: Any significant earnings miss in the core men's health segment would break this base. I'm 35% confident we see a recovery to $26.50 over the next 12 months.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the looming threat of FDA enforcement and litigation from Novo Nordisk regarding HIMS' mass compounding of semaglutide. With BofA lowering price targets to $29 and the current price already failing that support, a technical collapse to the $12-$15 range is probable if the FDA issues a formal 'Cease and Desist' or if lawsuits successfully block the sale of oral semaglutide. This segment was expected to drive the next leg of growth; without it, the company's valuation multiple will likely compress from its current levels to a modest 1.5x sales.
Secondary factors include significant investment requirements for 2026 and increasing competition from Amazon Pharmacy, which has more robust logistics and lower customer acquisition costs. Given that 7 out of 7 CDLENGULFING patterns have historically led to extended moves, the current bearish engulfing on the weekly chart suggests the floor has not yet been found. Risk: A legal victory or FDA leniency could catalyze a short squeeze. I am 55% confident in a $14.50 target within 1 year as regulatory headwinds typically take 12-18 months to fully resolve.
Strong insider buying or a strategic buyout from a larger telehealth provider could also trigger a rapid re-rating. While technicals are currently broken, the historical success rate of candlestick reversals (CDLENGULFING at 85.7%) suggests that once a bottom signal is printed, the move back to the $40 resistance level can happen quickly. Risk: Continued legal expense drain. I'm 10% confident in a reach toward $42.00 by next year only if regulatory clouds completely dissipate.Base Case:The core business outside of GLP-1 compounding remains healthy, growing revenue at a 50% year-over-year clip, which should provide a valuation floor around the $25-$28 level. Over the next year, HIMS will likely transition its narrative from 'GLP-1 growth' to 'diversified healthcare platform' featuring its Grail partnership for cancer screening and UK/Canada expansions. This diversification prevents a total stock collapse but limits upside as the market waits for legal clarity.
Historically, high-growth healthcare stocks consolidate for 8-12 months following a major regulatory shock. With the current RSI suggesting near-oversold conditions, a period of sideways accumulation between $20 and $30 is the most likely outcome. Risk factor: Any significant earnings miss in the core men's health segment would break this base. I'm 35% confident we see a recovery to $26.50 over the next 12 months.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the looming threat of FDA enforcement and litigation from Novo Nordisk regarding HIMS' mass compounding of semaglutide. With BofA lowering price targets to $29 and the current price already failing that support, a technical collapse to the $12-$15 range is probable if the FDA issues a formal 'Cease and Desist' or if lawsuits successfully block the sale of oral semaglutide. This segment was expected to drive the next leg of growth; without it, the company's valuation multiple will likely compress from its current levels to a modest 1.5x sales.
Secondary factors include significant investment requirements for 2026 and increasing competition from Amazon Pharmacy, which has more robust logistics and lower customer acquisition costs. Given that 7 out of 7 CDLENGULFING patterns have historically led to extended moves, the current bearish engulfing on the weekly chart suggests the floor has not yet been found. Risk: A legal victory or FDA leniency could catalyze a short squeeze. I am 55% confident in a $14.50 target within 1 year as regulatory headwinds typically take 12-18 months to fully resolve.
Analyst Ratings
64.7%of 17 ratings
Buy
64.70%
Hold
29.40%
Sell
5.90%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment-0.35 (Slightly Negative)
- Hims & Hers shares fell 12.6% in after-hours trading following an FDA warning to take 'decisive steps' against firms mass-marketing non-approved compounded GLP-1 drugs.
- The company introduced a compounded semaglutide pill at a $49 introductory monthly price, significantly undercutting Novo Nordisk's brand-name products.
- Novo Nordisk has officially vowed to pursue legal and regulatory action against Hims & Hers to protect its intellectual property and the US drug approval framework.
- BofA analysts reduced their price target for HIMS to $29 from $32, maintaining an Underperform rating due to high investment needs in 2026.
- Hims & Hers is diversifying its portfolio by launching access to Grail’s Galleri multi-cancer early detection test to expand beyond weight-loss services.
- Despite regulatory headwinds, the company reported strong Q3 2025 results with US$600 million in revenue and approximately US$1 billion in cash and investments.
- Investors should watch for the upcoming Q4 and Full Year 2025 financial results scheduled for release on February 23, 2026.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$33.82
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
36.87
Volume
+79% above avg
*Watch for short below $5.95 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 07, 2026 | 12:33 AM
Signals & Anomalies
- Bearish Extreme Volume ExpansionOn the 10th most recent day, volume surged to 459.4M shares, approximately 3.3x the start-of-period average. This massive volume accompanied a price drop from an open of 42.28 to a low of 38.21, signaling a significant institutional exit and a shift into a high-volatility regime.
- Reliable Bearish Engulfing PatternCDLENGULFING was detected 7 times with a high 85.7% success rate (6 out of 7). Given the stock's recent decline from the 64.65 peak to the 25.99 low, these patterns effectively signaled the dominant downtrend and the rejection of short-term relief rallies.
- Volatility Regime Shift and Price CompressionThe stock transitioned from a high of 67.37 to a low of 23.97 within the 20-day window. After the aggressive sell-off, price action has begun to compress between 25.99 and 35.95, indicating the market is entering a consolidation phase as it digests regulatory news and the 50% year-over-year revenue growth.
- Failed Support and Mean Reversion AttemptThe stock hit a critical floor at 23.97 before attempting a recovery to 45.09 on the most recent day. However, the open at 48.14 and close at 45.09 suggests a failure to hold gains above the 47.00 historical resistance level, despite elevated volume of 262.2M shares.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Shareholder MeetingTBD
- Expansion into European General Health MarketsTBD
- Expected Launch of Proprietary GLP-1 Oral Medication2026-03-31
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Release & Conference Call2026-02-23