Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)|90dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score45%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$120.00
+45.6%
Probability: 20%
Base Target
$92.50
+12.3%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$74.00
-10.2%
Probability: 45%
Pivot$92.88
Resistance Level (R1)$110.51
Support Level (S1)$64.76
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 18%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:A decisive reversal triggered by the February 12 Q4 earnings and guidance on NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 architecture is the primary driver for a 45%+ upside move. Historically, AI infrastructure stocks with successful supply-chain execution have seen multiple expansions of 1.5x-2x when revenue growth exceeds 500% year-over-year. A target of $120.00 would reclaim the initial high of the tracking period, representing a recovery toward the 110.50 resistance level seen in early January.
Strong institutional interest from funds like Alger and the neutral cloud platform positioning will likely attract capital rotations away from expensive hyperscalers. If the 2.5 GW power backlog is converted to operational GPU clusters faster than expected, the stock could break its 14-week downtrend decisively. Risk factor: Any delay in NVIDIA hardware delivery would severely cap this upside. Therefore, I am 20% confident that stellar earnings could propel the stock back to $120.00 within 3 months.Base Case:Gradual accumulation near the current valuation floor is the most likely driver over the next 3 months, based on the attractive forward P/S ratio of <2.8x. While technicals are currently weak, the $20B backlog and 15% average historical analyst price target premiums suggest that the stock is entering a value-seeking consolidation phase. A return to the $90.00-95.00 range would represent a modest recovery toward the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the last quarter, aligning with the 8-12% growth typically seen in stable yet volatile tech sectors during recovery cycles.
Macro headwinds regarding data center power costs are partially offset by the company's status as an NVIDIA partner, which provides a high-conviction narrative for long-term holders. The risk to this thesis is a broader market downturn dragging down the AI sector regardless of individual firm performance. I am 35% confident we see a base case target of $92.50 as the market stabilizes ahead of the next major deployment cycle.Bear Case:Persistent technical degradation is the primary driver, as evidenced by a 38.5% price collapse from the period high of $134.00 to the current $82.39 level. The failure of the Bullish Engulfing pattern and the recent break below the $84.12 support level suggests that the market is prioritizing liquidation over fundamentals. A lack of immediate technical floors could see price gravitate toward the $75.25 low established in late 2025, which represents the last major psychological support zone before further capitulation.
Ongoing internal control over financial reporting (ICFR) weaknesses represent a secondary risk that could lead to institutional divestment if not resolved by the next fiscal filing. This regulatory uncertainty, combined with a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggests that even a neutral earnings report might be sold off in the current macro climate. Risk factor: A surprise acceleration in revenue guidance could squeeze shorts and invalidate this bearish floor. Therefore, I am 45% confident the stock will retest $74.00 within the next 3 months.
Strong institutional interest from funds like Alger and the neutral cloud platform positioning will likely attract capital rotations away from expensive hyperscalers. If the 2.5 GW power backlog is converted to operational GPU clusters faster than expected, the stock could break its 14-week downtrend decisively. Risk factor: Any delay in NVIDIA hardware delivery would severely cap this upside. Therefore, I am 20% confident that stellar earnings could propel the stock back to $120.00 within 3 months.Base Case:Gradual accumulation near the current valuation floor is the most likely driver over the next 3 months, based on the attractive forward P/S ratio of <2.8x. While technicals are currently weak, the $20B backlog and 15% average historical analyst price target premiums suggest that the stock is entering a value-seeking consolidation phase. A return to the $90.00-95.00 range would represent a modest recovery toward the volume-weighted average price (VWAP) of the last quarter, aligning with the 8-12% growth typically seen in stable yet volatile tech sectors during recovery cycles.
Macro headwinds regarding data center power costs are partially offset by the company's status as an NVIDIA partner, which provides a high-conviction narrative for long-term holders. The risk to this thesis is a broader market downturn dragging down the AI sector regardless of individual firm performance. I am 35% confident we see a base case target of $92.50 as the market stabilizes ahead of the next major deployment cycle.Bear Case:Persistent technical degradation is the primary driver, as evidenced by a 38.5% price collapse from the period high of $134.00 to the current $82.39 level. The failure of the Bullish Engulfing pattern and the recent break below the $84.12 support level suggests that the market is prioritizing liquidation over fundamentals. A lack of immediate technical floors could see price gravitate toward the $75.25 low established in late 2025, which represents the last major psychological support zone before further capitulation.
Ongoing internal control over financial reporting (ICFR) weaknesses represent a secondary risk that could lead to institutional divestment if not resolved by the next fiscal filing. This regulatory uncertainty, combined with a bearish sequence of lower highs and lower lows, suggests that even a neutral earnings report might be sold off in the current macro climate. Risk factor: A surprise acceleration in revenue guidance could squeeze shorts and invalidate this bearish floor. Therefore, I am 45% confident the stock will retest $74.00 within the next 3 months.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 1 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketWatch | WallStreetZen | TipRanks
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.78 (Positive)
- Nebius presents a 44%+ upside potential into Q4 earnings, supported by a valuation of less than 2.8x forward P/S, which is significantly lower than its AI infrastructure peers.
- The February 12 earnings report is expected to showcase explosive revenue growth and provide critical details on the launch of the NVIDIA Vera Rubin NVL72 architecture.
- The company boasts a massive $20 billion backlog, validating the high demand for its AI data center services, though execution risk remains a factor for investors to monitor.
- Revenue growth is currently limited by 'energizable supply' rather than demand; Nebius has secured 2.5 GW of contracted power to fuel future GPU capacity expansion.
- Strategic contracts with Meta and Microsoft for compute capacity provide immediate monetization and validate Nebius's position as a preferred secondary AI cloud provider.
- Bearish concerns include internal control weaknesses (ICFR) and potential policy shifts regarding data center power costs that could pressure profit margins.
- Nebius is leveraging its 'neutral' status by providing open-source tools like Soperator and Papyrax, allowing customers to avoid vendor lock-in with major hyperscalers.
- Analysts project a staggering 521% revenue growth for 2026 as the company enters a transition from deployment to high-utilization monetization phase.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$93.47
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
46.68
Volume
+25% above avg
*Watch for short below $64.76 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 04, 2026 | 11:59 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Expansion and Volume ClimaxTrading volume surged to 176.3M shares on the penultimate recorded session, representing a 2.7x increase over the 14-day average of 65M. This climax occurred on a massive intraday range between $118.37 and $82.00, signaling a potential volatility regime shift or clinical blow-off top before the subsequent $134.00 open.
- Gap-Up Reversal and Selling PressureThe stock exhibited a significant exhaustion gap, opening at $115.18 and $134.00 in the final sessions but failing to hold gains. Despite reaching a high of $134.93, the price closed at $111.28, creating a massive upper wick that indicates intense profit-taking and institutional distribution near recent highs.
- Failed Bearish Engulfing SignalA CDLENGULFING pattern was detected during the analysis period with a 0% success rate. This indicates that traditional bearish reversal signals are currently being overwhelmed by strong underlying demand and the narrative of the $20B backlog, suggesting that dips are being bought despite technical sell signals.
- Major Support Level ValidationThe price has established a critical support zone between $75.25 and $78.44. Multiple sessions showed intraday dips into this range being aggressively bid back up to closes above $82.00, identifying the sub-$80 level as a high-conviction accumulation zone for institutional buyers ahead of the Q4 earnings catalyst.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Product Roadmap Update (Summer Session)TBD
- Annual Shareholders Meeting2026-05-12
- Dividend Payout Date2026-04-15
- Ex-Dividend Date2026-03-28
- Q4 2025 Earnings Release2026-03-24