Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)|1dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$240.50
+1.6%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$236.85
+0.0%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$231.50
-2.2%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$234.50
Resistance Level (R1)$269.19
Support Level (S1)$202.03
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 0%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The OpenAI infrastructure deal is the leading bullish driver because it provides concrete evidence of hyperscaler diversification into AMD's Instinct GPU ecosystem. This shift away from Nvidia dominance creates a massive re-rating opportunity for AMD's data center multiples. Technical momentum shows strong underlying absorption of sell orders at $235, with a successful CDLEVENINGSTAR reversal rate of 50% indicating that when reversals trigger, they hold with high conviction.
Capitalizing on Intel's foundry struggles allows for additional CPU market share gains via EPYC in the data center. Risk factor: A broader tech sell-off or hawkish Fed commentary could cap intraday gains. I am 15% confident in a breakout above $240.50 if the Ryzen launch sentiment builds early.Base Case:Neutral price action is expected as investors await the Ryzen 7 9850X3D launch on Jan 29 and the subsequent earnings report. The current price of $236.76 is locked in a high-volume node where Doji patterns (detected 864 times) suggest heavy distribution balancing accumulation from institutional 'second-source' bulls. Price stability is supported by the Piper Sandler price target hike to $300, which acts as a valuation floor.
Macro hyperscaler CapEx projections of $500B provide a steady tailwind, yet the 115% YTD gain limits aggressive immediate buying. Risk factor: Any sudden sector-wide shift in the SOXX index could trigger a range breakout. I am 30% confident the price remains tethered to the $236-237 range for the next 24 hours.Bear Case:Rumors of MI450 product delays are the primary bearish driver because any supply chain friction in the Instinct GPU line could significantly impair 2026 revenue guidance. Technical data shows price currently hovering at $236.76 with high volume sellers appearing at any test of the $238 resistance line. If production schedule concerns are validated by leaks before the Feb 3 earnings, we could see a quick retreat toward the Bernstein target level of $225.
Ongoing competition from Nvidia Blackwell chips remains a secondary macro headwind alongside a potential pre-earnings profit-taking cycle. Risk factor: A surprise announcement regarding accelerated production would negate this downside. I am 55% confident in a bearish pull-back toward $231.50 within 1 day as the market prices in caution.
Capitalizing on Intel's foundry struggles allows for additional CPU market share gains via EPYC in the data center. Risk factor: A broader tech sell-off or hawkish Fed commentary could cap intraday gains. I am 15% confident in a breakout above $240.50 if the Ryzen launch sentiment builds early.Base Case:Neutral price action is expected as investors await the Ryzen 7 9850X3D launch on Jan 29 and the subsequent earnings report. The current price of $236.76 is locked in a high-volume node where Doji patterns (detected 864 times) suggest heavy distribution balancing accumulation from institutional 'second-source' bulls. Price stability is supported by the Piper Sandler price target hike to $300, which acts as a valuation floor.
Macro hyperscaler CapEx projections of $500B provide a steady tailwind, yet the 115% YTD gain limits aggressive immediate buying. Risk factor: Any sudden sector-wide shift in the SOXX index could trigger a range breakout. I am 30% confident the price remains tethered to the $236-237 range for the next 24 hours.Bear Case:Rumors of MI450 product delays are the primary bearish driver because any supply chain friction in the Instinct GPU line could significantly impair 2026 revenue guidance. Technical data shows price currently hovering at $236.76 with high volume sellers appearing at any test of the $238 resistance line. If production schedule concerns are validated by leaks before the Feb 3 earnings, we could see a quick retreat toward the Bernstein target level of $225.
Ongoing competition from Nvidia Blackwell chips remains a secondary macro headwind alongside a potential pre-earnings profit-taking cycle. Risk factor: A surprise announcement regarding accelerated production would negate this downside. I am 55% confident in a bearish pull-back toward $231.50 within 1 day as the market prices in caution.
Analyst Ratings
78.0%of 50 ratings
Buy
78.00%
Hold
20.00%
Sell
2.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Nasdaq
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.72 (Positive)
- AMD secured a multi-year AI chip supply agreement with OpenAI that includes a warrant for OpenAI to potentially acquire an equity stake in AMD based on performance milestones.
- Piper Sandler raised its price target for AMD to $300 from $280, reaffirming an Overweight rating based on strong 2026 prospects for Helios and OpenAI infrastructure.
- Recent stock volatility was triggered by rumors of delays in the next-generation MI450-series AI accelerators, though some analysts maintain production remains on track.
- Consensus estimates for the upcoming Q4 report project earnings per share of $1.32 on revenue of $9.65 billion, representing significant year-over-year gains.
- Intel's disappointing earnings and supply constraints in the server CPU market are creating an immediate market share growth opportunity for AMD's EPYC processor line.
- AMD is launching the high-performance Ryzen 7 9850X3D gaming processor on January 29 at a $499 price point to maintain dominance in the enthusiast PC segment.
- The company expanded its partnership with GIGABYTE to integrate Ryzen AI processors into laptops and monitors, targeting the growing 'on-device AI' consumer electronics market.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$221.25
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
51.31
Volume
+6% above avg
*Watch for short below $202.03 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 01, 2026 | 02:50 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Volume-Price Divergence at HighsWhile price climbed from $217.60 to $218.31, volume surged from 1,725 to 8,138 in the final sessions, a 371% increase. This peak volume accompanied by flattening price action near $218.35 suggests absorption and potential exhaustion ahead of the February 3 earnings catalyst.
- Doji Pattern ReliabilityHistorical technical data shows 864 CDLDOJI detections with a 48.7% success rate. Given the recent cluster of narrow-range closes between $217.90 and $218.31, these indecision signals indicate a consolidation phase that historically precedes a significant volatility expansion in the AMD ticker.
- Resistance Testing and Support FloorAMD is currently testing a tight resistance zone between $218.11 and $218.35. A failure to hold the $217.03 support level seen in the final day's low could signal a retracement, despite the bullish sentiment from the OpenAI infrastructure deal and the $300 price target from Piper Sandler.
- Pre-Earnings Volatility CompressionThe intraday range has compressed significantly, holding within a $1.77 spread ($216.58 to $218.35) over the last 20 observations. This low-volatility environment combined with the upcoming Ryzen 7 9850X3D launch on Jan 29 suggests a massive breakout is imminent as the market positions for 2026 revenue guidance.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Ryzen 9000 Series X3D Refresh LaunchTBD
- Instinct MI400 Series Architecture UpdateTBD
- Morgan Stanley TMT Conference Presentation2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Goldman Sachs Technology and Internet Conference2026-02-09 / 2026-02-11
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-03