MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)|90dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$178.50
+33.3%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$142.20
+6.2%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$95.50
-28.7%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$142.75
Resistance Level (R1)$181.33
Support Level (S1)$95.30
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 1%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The bullish driver over the next 8 weeks relies on a 'mean reversion' to the Bitcoin average cost basis of $76,037, which would restore confidence in the 'Digital Capital' strategy. Current price of $133.88 is a 30% discount from the January high of $190.20, potentially offering a high-beta entry point if BTC reclaims the $75k level. Historically, MSTR rallies have seen 40-50% upside within 60 days following heavy volume 'washout' events like the one observed on Feb 6th.
Institutional backing remains high with firms like H.C. Wainwright maintaining a $540 target, suggesting significant long-term conviction from some analysts. A successful rollout of the preferred share offering could provide the liquidity needed to 'buy the dip.' Risk: Any Bitcoin drop below $50k would likely lead to forced selling. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $178.50 if the crypto market enters a relief rally and premium to NAV restores.Base Case:The neutral base case over the next 2 months assumes stabilization as the 'Smart Money' waits for a Bitcoin bottom near the $60,000 range. While the Q4 loss was staggering, corporate revenue remained stable at $123 million, providing a floor for the software business value independent of the crypto treasury. Price action in the last two weeks shows a narrowing range between $120 and $140, suggesting a transition from impulsive selling to sideways accumulation.
Technical indicators like RSI are currently at 34, near oversold territory but lacking a catalyst for a V-shaped recovery. The shift to perpetual preferred shares may reduce immediate selling pressure on common equity. Risk: Extreme volatility in the crypto market could break this consolidation. I am 30% confident that MSTR will settle near $142.20 as the market digests the new dividend structure and Bitcoin volatility cools.Bear Case:The primary driver for a bearish outlook over the next 2 months is the massive $12.4 billion Q4 net loss ($42.93/share) and the fundamental break below the $150.00 psychological support level. Bitcoin's flash crash from $126,000 to $60,000 has placed MSTR's average cost basis of $76,037 underwater, triggering margin concerns for their leveraged model. Historically, when MSTR's premium to NAV compresses during crypto downturns, the stock experiences accelerated drawdowns compared to BTC itself.
Secondary factors include the 11.25% variable dividend on new preferred shares which increases the cost of capital and potential dilution. Resistance is firmly established at the 20-day EMA ($155.30). Risk: A sudden Bitcoin recovery above $80k would invalidate this thesis. I am 55% confident in a $95.50 target within 2 months as the market re-prices the risk of the leveraged treasury model.
Institutional backing remains high with firms like H.C. Wainwright maintaining a $540 target, suggesting significant long-term conviction from some analysts. A successful rollout of the preferred share offering could provide the liquidity needed to 'buy the dip.' Risk: Any Bitcoin drop below $50k would likely lead to forced selling. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $178.50 if the crypto market enters a relief rally and premium to NAV restores.Base Case:The neutral base case over the next 2 months assumes stabilization as the 'Smart Money' waits for a Bitcoin bottom near the $60,000 range. While the Q4 loss was staggering, corporate revenue remained stable at $123 million, providing a floor for the software business value independent of the crypto treasury. Price action in the last two weeks shows a narrowing range between $120 and $140, suggesting a transition from impulsive selling to sideways accumulation.
Technical indicators like RSI are currently at 34, near oversold territory but lacking a catalyst for a V-shaped recovery. The shift to perpetual preferred shares may reduce immediate selling pressure on common equity. Risk: Extreme volatility in the crypto market could break this consolidation. I am 30% confident that MSTR will settle near $142.20 as the market digests the new dividend structure and Bitcoin volatility cools.Bear Case:The primary driver for a bearish outlook over the next 2 months is the massive $12.4 billion Q4 net loss ($42.93/share) and the fundamental break below the $150.00 psychological support level. Bitcoin's flash crash from $126,000 to $60,000 has placed MSTR's average cost basis of $76,037 underwater, triggering margin concerns for their leveraged model. Historically, when MSTR's premium to NAV compresses during crypto downturns, the stock experiences accelerated drawdowns compared to BTC itself.
Secondary factors include the 11.25% variable dividend on new preferred shares which increases the cost of capital and potential dilution. Resistance is firmly established at the 20-day EMA ($155.30). Risk: A sudden Bitcoin recovery above $80k would invalidate this thesis. I am 55% confident in a $95.50 target within 2 months as the market re-prices the risk of the leveraged treasury model.
Analyst Ratings
90.0%of 10 ratings
Buy
90.00%
Hold
10.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment-0.35 (Slightly Negative)
- MicroStrategy is launching 'Stretch' perpetual preferred shares with an 11.25% variable dividend to fund Bitcoin purchases while attempting to minimize share-price swings and common stock dilution.
- The company reported a massive $12.4 billion net loss for Q4 2025 as Bitcoin prices fell below its cumulative acquisition cost basis of approximately $76,000 per coin.
- Michael Saylor claims the company faces no immediate liquidation risk unless Bitcoin drops to $8,000, citing a low-interest debt structure that lacks margin-call triggers.
- Analysts at BTIG maintained a Buy rating but significantly lowered their price target from $630 to $250 following the volatility and Q4 earnings miss.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its price target to $192 from $213, reflecting a more cautious valuation stance as the stock's premium over its underlying Bitcoin holdings has eroded.
- CEO Phong Le announced a strategic target to double the amount of Bitcoin held per share over the next seven years through continuous, disciplined accumulation.
- Despite high paper losses, the company maintains a $2.25 billion cash reserve, which is sufficient to cover fixed charges and interest for approximately 17 months.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$159.57
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
37.13
Volume
-5% below avg
*Watch for short below $95.3 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 14, 2026 | 06:50 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Expansion and Low-End RejectionOn the second day of recorded data, MSTR exhibited an extreme intraday range of $43.71, dropping to $104.16 before closing at $134.93. The surge in volume to 196.7M shares—the highest in the period—indicates a massive liquidity event and successful defense of the $100 psychological level despite crypto-market turmoil.
- Range Contraction and Volume AtrophyOver the final three sessions, trading volume has dried up from 127M to 54.5M and 105M shares, while price fluctuates in a tightening range between $154.12 and $176.50. This consolidation following high volatility suggests the market is reaching a temporary equilibrium as it awaits the next Bitcoin catalyst.
- Price-to-NAV Premium StressMSTR is currently trading at approximately $164.82, significantly higher than its $104.16 low, despite Bitcoin prices remaining below the company's $76,037 average cost basis. This represents a distinct risk signal where the stock's premium over its underlying digital assets is being tested by high short interest and multi-billion dollar accounting losses.
- Resistance Near Major Overhead LevelsThe stock has failed twice to sustain a breakout above the $170-$190 zone, hitting a high of $190.20 before reversing to close at $173.71, and later peaking at $176.50. This creates a clear resistance ceiling that aligns with analyst target cuts toward the $192 level, indicating strong selling pressure on price recoveries.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Q2 2026 Quarterly Earnings ReleaseTBD
- Annual Shareholder Meeting2026-05-22
- MicroStrategy World 2026 Conference2026-05-04 / 2026-05-07
- Q1 2026 Quarterly Earnings Release2026-04-29
- Dividend Ex-Date (Anticipated - Non-Cash)2026-02-28