Cipher Mining Inc (CIFR)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score45%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$26.00
+46.6%
Probability: 20%
Base Target
$18.50
+4.3%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$11.50
-35.1%
Probability: 45%
Pivot$14.71
Resistance Level (R1)$27.57
Support Level (S1)$3.91
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 4%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:Over the next year, CIFR targets $26.00 because of the rapid re-rating from a technology-based 'miner' to an 'AI/HPC Infrastructure' firm, a sector that typically commands P/S multiples 3-4x higher than mining. With an 8.5B+ deal pipeline involving hyperscalers like AWS, any early delivery of power-ready sites could trigger a massive short squeeze and multiple expansion. If Bitcoin hits new all-time highs while these AI contracts are finalized, CIFR will benefit from a 'double tailwind' effect that could replicate the 100%+ year-over-year gains seen in similar infrastructure turnarounds.
Technical patterns show the $25.52 high from late 2025 as the primary psychological target; a break above this on high volume targets $30.00. The company's massive cash position and lack of immediate debt relative to its $2B raise provide an unparalleled war chest in the micro-cap infrastructure space. Risk: Global AI spending slowdown. I am 20% confident in a bull target of $26.00 within 12 months.Base Case:Over the next year, the stock is likely to trade at $18.50 because of the fundamental shift toward High-Performance Computing (HPC) reaching a neutral equilibrium with Bitcoin mining cyclicality. The company's 1 GW expansion pipeline provides a floor for the valuation, as the market begins to price in the future 2026 revenue from Google and Amazon hyperscaler deals. Historical volatility suggests CIFR can sustain a 10-15% premium over its current levels as long as the infrastructure milestones for the Ulysses site are met on time.
The current PEG ratio remains attractive compared to pure AI peers, even if mining margins compress. Support at the $14.50-15.00 range has held through multiple tests, suggesting institutional accumulation. This target reflects a modest 10% appreciation, balancing strong fundamentals against the high cost of capital for their $2B expansion. Risk: Delays in data center construction. I am 35% confident we see $18.50 in 12 months.Bear Case:Over the next year, Cipher Mining's price could decline because of extreme capital dilution from its $2 billion funding move and the vulnerability of its legacy mining operations to Bitcoin's volatility. If BTC undergoes a significant correction below $60k, the correlation (currently ~0.72) would drag CIFR down despite its AI ambitions. Furthermore, the 200MW Ulysses site expansion in Ohio is not scheduled to be operational until 2026, leaving a 12-month execution gap where expenses will outpace revenue growth significantly.
Regulatory headwinds regarding energy consumption for AI data centers could halt expansion plans or increase operational costs. Technically, if the $12.63 low from February 2026 is breached, the stock lacks support until the $7.50-8.00 level. Risk factor: Faster than expected BTC recovery. I am 45% confident in a bear target of $11.50 within 12 months due to execution risks and heavy dilution.
Technical patterns show the $25.52 high from late 2025 as the primary psychological target; a break above this on high volume targets $30.00. The company's massive cash position and lack of immediate debt relative to its $2B raise provide an unparalleled war chest in the micro-cap infrastructure space. Risk: Global AI spending slowdown. I am 20% confident in a bull target of $26.00 within 12 months.Base Case:Over the next year, the stock is likely to trade at $18.50 because of the fundamental shift toward High-Performance Computing (HPC) reaching a neutral equilibrium with Bitcoin mining cyclicality. The company's 1 GW expansion pipeline provides a floor for the valuation, as the market begins to price in the future 2026 revenue from Google and Amazon hyperscaler deals. Historical volatility suggests CIFR can sustain a 10-15% premium over its current levels as long as the infrastructure milestones for the Ulysses site are met on time.
The current PEG ratio remains attractive compared to pure AI peers, even if mining margins compress. Support at the $14.50-15.00 range has held through multiple tests, suggesting institutional accumulation. This target reflects a modest 10% appreciation, balancing strong fundamentals against the high cost of capital for their $2B expansion. Risk: Delays in data center construction. I am 35% confident we see $18.50 in 12 months.Bear Case:Over the next year, Cipher Mining's price could decline because of extreme capital dilution from its $2 billion funding move and the vulnerability of its legacy mining operations to Bitcoin's volatility. If BTC undergoes a significant correction below $60k, the correlation (currently ~0.72) would drag CIFR down despite its AI ambitions. Furthermore, the 200MW Ulysses site expansion in Ohio is not scheduled to be operational until 2026, leaving a 12-month execution gap where expenses will outpace revenue growth significantly.
Regulatory headwinds regarding energy consumption for AI data centers could halt expansion plans or increase operational costs. Technically, if the $12.63 low from February 2026 is breached, the stock lacks support until the $7.50-8.00 level. Risk factor: Faster than expected BTC recovery. I am 45% confident in a bear target of $11.50 within 12 months due to execution risks and heavy dilution.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 8 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.72 (Positive)
- Cipher Mining is rolling out a $2 billion funding move to develop a mega data center, signaling a major infrastructure push.
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods has significantly raised their price target for CIFR from $13 to $22, maintaining an Outperform rating.
- The company is targeting $8.5 billion+ in hyperscaler deals with giants like Google and Amazon to fuel its AI data center growth.
- Strategic diversification is underway with the acquisition of the 200MW 'Ulysses' site in Ohio, Cipher’s first facility outside of Texas.
- Execution on AWS and Fluidstack HPC/AI leases is expected to drive substantial growth starting in the second half of 2026.
- Short-term stock performance remains highly sensitive to Bitcoin market volatility, rebounding swiftly during crypto recoveries.
- Unusual options activity and whale movements suggest high institutional interest and increased market speculation in CIFR shares.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$17.06
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
48.23
Volume
+6% above avg
*Watch for short below $3.91 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 10, 2026 | 05:19 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Institutional Volume SurgeHistorical data shows a massive volume escalation peaking at 283.4M shares during the move from $4.35 to $6.05. This represents a significant deviation from earlier 50M-60M levels, indicating institutional accumulation and high conviction surrounding the $2 billion funding move and HPC pivot.
- Candlestick Indecision ClusterThe detection of 9 CDLDOJI patterns with a 67% success rate highlights recurring market indecision near $3.00 and $4.00 levels. This frequent consolidation suggests that while Bitcoin volatility creates noise, the market is actively searching for a floor based on the new $22 price target valuation.
- Volatility Support and ReboundThe stock established a firm floor near the $1.86-$2.10 range before rebounding aggressively to $5.87. This 180% recovery from recent lows, accompanied by high volume, suggests a structural trend reversal from a speculative miner to an infrastructure provider, overcoming previous bearish engulfing signals.
- Strategic Price Gap ResistanceA significant price gap exists between the recent $5.87 close and the KBW analyst target of $22.00. While short-term volume spikes near $6.50 indicate overhead resistance, the shift toward AI/HPC infrastructure acts as a fundamental catalyst for filling long-term valuation gaps.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Expected Completion of Blackbeards Wind Farm Infrastructure ExpansionTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-05-13 / 2026-05-15
- March 2026 Monthly Production Update2026-04-03
- February 2026 Monthly Production Update2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-03-04