Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)|90dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$16.50
+17.9%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$13.25
-5.4%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$11.50
-17.9%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$16.76
Resistance Level (R1)$19.93
Support Level (S1)$10.82
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 1%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver for an upside reversal is the R2 platform validation because Marques Brownlee and other influential reviewers have positioned the $45,000 SUV as the premier Tesla Model Y competitor. If pre-order numbers for the R2 exceed the consensus estimate of 75,000 units during the 55-day window, a short squeeze is highly probable given the recent heavy selling pressure. This is significant because a successful manufacturing milestone at the Illinois plant could pivot the narrative from 'bankruptcy risk' to 'growth scale,' justifying a re-rating toward historical mean valuations.
Secondary factors include a potential sector-wide relief rally if broader EV incentives are clarified and the VW joint venture begins yielding tangible software integration results. Resistance at $15.59 (recent high) must be cleared to target the psychological $18.00 level. Risk factor: any delay in R2 production timelines would invalidate this thesis. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $16.50 within the next 8 weeks.Base Case:The primary driver is the price stabilization stemming from the $5.8 billion Volkswagen joint venture news, which provides a capital floor despite current operational losses. Price has reached a recent low of $13.58 and showed a minor recovery to $14.80 before settling at $14.00, suggesting a consolidation zone is forming. This is significant because the market is balancing the R2 manufacturing milestones against the immediate earnings volatility, likely resulting in a 'wait-and-see' approach from institutional investors until spring R2 test units are released.
Secondary factors include the settlement of the $250 million IPO lawsuit, which removes a legal distraction, and the R2 potential acting as a long-term valuation anchor. While the technical trend is down, extreme RSI readings near the 30-mark often lead to 4-7 week periods of horizontal trading. Risk factor: unexpected Q4 Capex increases could break the floor. I am 30% confident the stock trades sideways near $13.25 over the next 2 months.Bear Case:The primary driver is the accelerating cash burn and recent analyst downgrades because UBS and Wolfe Research have set targets near $15 while citing deteriorating risk-reward profiles. The current price has collapsed 33% from the $20.90 high in late December, and the recent recall of 20,000 vehicles introduces further margin compression risks at a time when the company is losing significant capital per vehicle. This is significant because the 55-day window encompasses the negative momentum following the February 12th earnings, where manufacturing costs are expected to weigh heavily on guidance.
Secondary factors include the broader contraction in EV demand and California's proposed matching incentive program which could further drain Rivian's limited cash reserves. Technical support at $13.58 is fragile; if this level breaks on the next volume spike, price discovery could lead to a psychological test of $10.00. I am 55% confident that the price will decline to $11.50 within the next 8 weeks due to persistent structural headwinds.
Secondary factors include a potential sector-wide relief rally if broader EV incentives are clarified and the VW joint venture begins yielding tangible software integration results. Resistance at $15.59 (recent high) must be cleared to target the psychological $18.00 level. Risk factor: any delay in R2 production timelines would invalidate this thesis. I am 15% confident in a recovery to $16.50 within the next 8 weeks.Base Case:The primary driver is the price stabilization stemming from the $5.8 billion Volkswagen joint venture news, which provides a capital floor despite current operational losses. Price has reached a recent low of $13.58 and showed a minor recovery to $14.80 before settling at $14.00, suggesting a consolidation zone is forming. This is significant because the market is balancing the R2 manufacturing milestones against the immediate earnings volatility, likely resulting in a 'wait-and-see' approach from institutional investors until spring R2 test units are released.
Secondary factors include the settlement of the $250 million IPO lawsuit, which removes a legal distraction, and the R2 potential acting as a long-term valuation anchor. While the technical trend is down, extreme RSI readings near the 30-mark often lead to 4-7 week periods of horizontal trading. Risk factor: unexpected Q4 Capex increases could break the floor. I am 30% confident the stock trades sideways near $13.25 over the next 2 months.Bear Case:The primary driver is the accelerating cash burn and recent analyst downgrades because UBS and Wolfe Research have set targets near $15 while citing deteriorating risk-reward profiles. The current price has collapsed 33% from the $20.90 high in late December, and the recent recall of 20,000 vehicles introduces further margin compression risks at a time when the company is losing significant capital per vehicle. This is significant because the 55-day window encompasses the negative momentum following the February 12th earnings, where manufacturing costs are expected to weigh heavily on guidance.
Secondary factors include the broader contraction in EV demand and California's proposed matching incentive program which could further drain Rivian's limited cash reserves. Technical support at $13.58 is fragile; if this level breaks on the next volume spike, price discovery could lead to a psychological test of $10.00. I am 55% confident that the price will decline to $11.50 within the next 8 weeks due to persistent structural headwinds.
Analyst Ratings
51.8%of 27 ratings
Buy
51.80%
Hold
40.70%
Sell
7.50%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.05 (Neutral)
- Rivian is scheduled to report its Q4 earnings on February 12, 2026, which will be a primary catalyst for the stock's near-term direction.
- The company has proposed a $250 million settlement to resolve a securities class action lawsuit related to its IPO, potentially removing a significant legal distraction.
- UBS downgraded Rivian to 'Sell' from 'Neutral' with a $15 price target, citing concerns that current gains have outpaced fundamentals and created an unfavorable risk profile.
- Rivian maintains a $7 billion cash balance to fund its shift toward mass-market production of the $45,000 R2 SUV, which aims for a 324% increase in software-related revenue.
- A recent recall of nearly 20,000 vehicles due to a defect that may increase crash risk has weighed on investor confidence and highlighted execution hurdles.
- Manufacturing validation units of the R2 SUV have begun production at the updated Illinois plant, keeping the company on its 2026 volume production timeline.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$17.67
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
50.20
Volume
+38% above avg
*Watch for short below $10.82 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 12, 2026 | 09:49 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Expansion with Price ClimbThe stock moved from an intraday low of 13.58 to a high of 22.69 within the recorded sessions, a 67% range expansion. Trading volume peaked at 177,036,080 shares during the move to 19.22, significantly exceeding the liquidity of earlier sessions and indicating high institutional participation during the upward momentum.
- Bearish Price-Volume DivergenceOn the final day of data, price reached a new high of 22.69 and closed at 20.90, yet volume dropped to 108.3M, lower than the 177M and 123.6M seen during the initial surge. This suggests exhausting buying pressure at higher price levels, often a precursor to a short-term trend reversal.
- Upper Shadow Resistance PatternThe final three sessions show consistent long upper shadows with highs reaching 20.95, 21.04, and 22.69, but closing significantly lower at 19.22, 19.41, and 20.90 respectively. This price action indicates strong selling pressure and profit-taking occurring above the 21.00 psychological level.
- Bearish Engulfing Signal ContradictionA CDLENGULFING pattern was detected during the period with a 0% historical success rate in this specific window. While technically a bearish signal, the failure to follow through downward amid the VW joint venture news suggests the market is currently disregarding technical sell signals in favor of fundamental catalysts.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Investor Day 2026: Georgia Manufacturing Plant Status UpdateTBD
- Announcement of Q1 2026 Production and Delivery NumbersTBD
- 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders2026-06-18
- Expected R2 Platform Validation Update and Production Timeline Review2026-03-10 / 2026-03-12
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call and Full Year 2025 Financial Results2026-02-19