SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$34.20
+49.9%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$26.50
+16.2%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$18.45
-19.1%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$21.38
Resistance Level (R1)$34.16
Support Level (S1)$10.03
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 21%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:Massive operating leverage from the member base exceeding 10 million and a successful deployment of the $1.7B capital into high-yield lending units would be the primary driver for a breakout. If SoFi achieves its aggressive 2026 EPS guidance of $0.55-$0.80 early, the market will likely re-rate the stock to a growth-fintech multiple of 45x P/E.
Technical recovery above the $30 resistance on sustained volume would trigger a short-squeeze scenario, potentially targeting the prior cycle highs. Risk factors include higher-for-longer rates dampening refinancing demand. I am 15% confident in a $34.20 target over the next year, as this requires a significant shift in institutional sentiment and a broader fintech sector rally.Base Case:Steady execution in the Technology Platform (Galileo/Technisys) with 20% annual revenue growth serves as the primary stabilizer for the stock price over the next year. As SoFi transitions further into a diversified digital bank, fee-based income is projected to reach 40% of total revenue, insulating the bottom line from interest rate volatility.
The current pullback to $22.81 represents a 17% correction that aligns with historical accumulation zones; however, the lack of immediate catalysts suggests a period of consolidation between $22 and $28. I am 30% confident in a base case of $26.50, reflecting a moderate 16% recovery as the market digests the recent capital raise and focuses on 2026 EPS targets.Bear Case:Regulatory tightening on fintech lending and a potential recessionary spike in net charge-offs represent the primary drivers; SoFi's lending segment remains sensitive to credit cycles, and a rise in default rates to 4.5% (from current levels) would compress margins significantly. The stock has broken below its 50-day EMA ($26.40) and 200-day EMA ($24.15), turning previous support into stiff resistance.
Ongoing dilution from the $1.7B convertible note offering caps the PE multiple at 18x forward earnings, while a contraction in personal loan demand during a macro slowdown could drive the price toward historical valuation floors near $16.50. I am 55% confident in this bearish trajectory because of the clear downward momentum and heavy-volume breakdown past the $25 level.
Technical recovery above the $30 resistance on sustained volume would trigger a short-squeeze scenario, potentially targeting the prior cycle highs. Risk factors include higher-for-longer rates dampening refinancing demand. I am 15% confident in a $34.20 target over the next year, as this requires a significant shift in institutional sentiment and a broader fintech sector rally.Base Case:Steady execution in the Technology Platform (Galileo/Technisys) with 20% annual revenue growth serves as the primary stabilizer for the stock price over the next year. As SoFi transitions further into a diversified digital bank, fee-based income is projected to reach 40% of total revenue, insulating the bottom line from interest rate volatility.
The current pullback to $22.81 represents a 17% correction that aligns with historical accumulation zones; however, the lack of immediate catalysts suggests a period of consolidation between $22 and $28. I am 30% confident in a base case of $26.50, reflecting a moderate 16% recovery as the market digests the recent capital raise and focuses on 2026 EPS targets.Bear Case:Regulatory tightening on fintech lending and a potential recessionary spike in net charge-offs represent the primary drivers; SoFi's lending segment remains sensitive to credit cycles, and a rise in default rates to 4.5% (from current levels) would compress margins significantly. The stock has broken below its 50-day EMA ($26.40) and 200-day EMA ($24.15), turning previous support into stiff resistance.
Ongoing dilution from the $1.7B convertible note offering caps the PE multiple at 18x forward earnings, while a contraction in personal loan demand during a macro slowdown could drive the price toward historical valuation floors near $16.50. I am 55% confident in this bearish trajectory because of the clear downward momentum and heavy-volume breakdown past the $25 level.
Analyst Ratings
50.0%of 16 ratings
Buy
31.25%
Hold
50.00%
Sell
18.75%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.65 (Positive)
- SoFi is currently rated as a 'Strong Buy' following a 17% price pullback, supported by consistent earnings beats and sustained user growth metrics.
- The introduction of SoFiUSD marks a strategic shift toward capital-light, high-margin revenue streams that decouple growth from heavy balance sheet requirements.
- A recent $1.7 billion capital raise is intended to fuel future lending and growth, though it has contributed to recent market skepticism regarding equity dilution.
- Despite high growth, some analysts recommend a 'Hold' position heading into the Q4 2025 earnings release due to the timing of recent equity raises and valuation concerns.
- The company's evolution into a full-scale digital bank is increasingly clear, with the technology platform segment expected to become a larger contributor to total profitability.
- Management's Q4 2025 presentation highlights a strengthening balance sheet and improved net interest income outlook for the upcoming 2026 fiscal year.
- As a key holding in fintech-focused ETFs like FINX, SoFi's volatility is often linked to broader market sentiment regarding developed market fintech assets.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$26.85
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
47.30
Volume
+161% above avg
*Watch for short below $10.03 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 01, 2026 | 03:00 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Regime ShiftHistorical data shows a dramatic expansion in trading ranges, with intraday spreads reaching a peak of approximately 3.61 on a day with 330M volume (high 12.49, low 8.88). This massive volatility cluster, occurring after the $1.7 billion capital raise, identifies a regime shift where price discovery is overriding stable valuation metrics.
- Volume-Price Divergence at Local LowsOn the day of the 8.60 intraday low, volume spiked to 352.6M shares, followed by a significant recovery to close at 10.71. This buying pressure at local lows suggests institutional accumulation despite the immediate 17% pullback mentioned in news, effectively establishing a firm floor near the 8.60 mark.
- Candlestick Pattern ClusteringAnalysis of CDLDOJI (5 instances, 60% success) and CDLEVENINGSTAR (1 instance, 100% success) suggests technical signals are pivoting from bearish exhaustion to consolidation. The recent 5-day price action ranging between 14.47 and 16.21 indicates a transition into a 'wait-and-see' phase following the initial dilution shock.
- Resistance Level CompressionThe stock has repeatedly struggled to maintain levels near 15.64 to 17.11 over the last 20 days. Despite hitting a high of 17.11, the close at 14.67 on that same day represents a sharp rejection of premium pricing, confirming a heavy supply zone that necessitates high-volume catalysts to overcome.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Meeting of ShareholdersTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-04-28
- Investor Conference Presentation - Consumer Finance2026-03-12
- Q4 2025 Earnings Conference Call2026-02-03