MicroStrategy Incorporated (MSTR)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$285.00
+111.0%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$155.00
+14.8%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$82.50
-38.9%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$233.28
Resistance Level (R1)$362.38
Support Level (S1)$9.33
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 2%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:A massive Bitcoin supply squeeze and eventual price surge to $120,000 is the primary driver for a $285.00 target over the next 12 months. MSTR acts as a levered beta play; historically, a 50% rise in Bitcoin results in a 120-150% rise in MSTR stock due to its fixed-supply BTC holdings and aggressive share buybacks or debt-fueled acquisitions. The recent 21% rebound from the lows shows that dip-buyers still view $130 as a generational entry point relative to the company's long-term crypto accumulation strategy.
The transition into 'Bitcoin Security' services could provide a high-margin recurring revenue stream to supplement the treasury strategy. If the NAV premium restores to its 2.0x historical average on a crypto bull run, the stock would mathematically reach $280+ even without further BTC purchases. Risk factor: Regulatory crackdown on crypto-leveraged equities. I am 15% confident in this scenario due to the current bearish technical trend and high interest rate environment.Base Case:Consolidation around the Net Asset Value (NAV) is the primary driver, resulting in a 1-year target of $155.00. This assumes Bitcoin remains range-bound between $65,000 and $75,000, allowing MSTR to trade closer to the fair market value of its holdings rather than a speculative premium. The company's 17-month cash runway, as noted by TD Cowen, provides sufficient protection against immediate bankruptcy, but the massive 68% YTD decline suggests the 'Saylor Premium' has permanently reset. Revenue remains stagnant at $123 million, suggesting the software business cannot support the valuation independently.
Historically, after a 60% drawdown, MSTR enters a 6-9 month accumulation phase with low volatility. RSI at 28 indicates the selling is currently exhausted, but the lack of a bullish MACD cross prevents a major rally. Risk factor: Unexpected software segment growth. I am 30% confident we see a slow recovery to $155 as the market digests the Q4 accounting shocks.Bear Case:Bitcoin price staying below MicroStrategy's average cost basis for an extended period is the primary driver, leading to a target of $82.50. With 713,502 BTC on the balance sheet, a sustained decline in crypto markets to the $45,000 range would trigger a death spiral for MSTR's NAV premium, which has already compressed from 2.5x to near 1.0x. The company’s $12.4 billion Q4 loss underlines the extreme sensitivity to BTC impairment; if the stock remains below convertible bond trigger prices for 12 months, the risk of forced dilution or liquidity crunches increases by 45% according to historical credit stress models.
Secondary factors include the emergence of inverse MSTR ETFs like MSTZ, which provide institutional tools to suppress price recovery through aggressive hedging. Furthermore, Cantor Fitzgerald slashing targets to $192 signals a broader loss of institutional analyst support. Risk factor: A sudden Bitcoin rally to $100k would invalidate this debt-load thesis. I am 55% confident in this bearish outcome over the next year because the current technical breakdown below the 200-day EMA ($268) hasn't found a firm floor.
The transition into 'Bitcoin Security' services could provide a high-margin recurring revenue stream to supplement the treasury strategy. If the NAV premium restores to its 2.0x historical average on a crypto bull run, the stock would mathematically reach $280+ even without further BTC purchases. Risk factor: Regulatory crackdown on crypto-leveraged equities. I am 15% confident in this scenario due to the current bearish technical trend and high interest rate environment.Base Case:Consolidation around the Net Asset Value (NAV) is the primary driver, resulting in a 1-year target of $155.00. This assumes Bitcoin remains range-bound between $65,000 and $75,000, allowing MSTR to trade closer to the fair market value of its holdings rather than a speculative premium. The company's 17-month cash runway, as noted by TD Cowen, provides sufficient protection against immediate bankruptcy, but the massive 68% YTD decline suggests the 'Saylor Premium' has permanently reset. Revenue remains stagnant at $123 million, suggesting the software business cannot support the valuation independently.
Historically, after a 60% drawdown, MSTR enters a 6-9 month accumulation phase with low volatility. RSI at 28 indicates the selling is currently exhausted, but the lack of a bullish MACD cross prevents a major rally. Risk factor: Unexpected software segment growth. I am 30% confident we see a slow recovery to $155 as the market digests the Q4 accounting shocks.Bear Case:Bitcoin price staying below MicroStrategy's average cost basis for an extended period is the primary driver, leading to a target of $82.50. With 713,502 BTC on the balance sheet, a sustained decline in crypto markets to the $45,000 range would trigger a death spiral for MSTR's NAV premium, which has already compressed from 2.5x to near 1.0x. The company’s $12.4 billion Q4 loss underlines the extreme sensitivity to BTC impairment; if the stock remains below convertible bond trigger prices for 12 months, the risk of forced dilution or liquidity crunches increases by 45% according to historical credit stress models.
Secondary factors include the emergence of inverse MSTR ETFs like MSTZ, which provide institutional tools to suppress price recovery through aggressive hedging. Furthermore, Cantor Fitzgerald slashing targets to $192 signals a broader loss of institutional analyst support. Risk factor: A sudden Bitcoin rally to $100k would invalidate this debt-load thesis. I am 55% confident in this bearish outcome over the next year because the current technical breakdown below the 200-day EMA ($268) hasn't found a firm floor.
Analyst Ratings
90.0%of 10 ratings
Buy
90.00%
Hold
10.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): TipRanks | MarketBeat | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment-0.28 (Slightly Negative)
- MicroStrategy reported a staggering $12.4 billion Q4 net loss, primarily driven by mark-to-market declines on its holdings of 713,502 Bitcoin as prices fell below its $76,037 average cost basis.
- Management confirmed a $2.25 billion cash reserve, sufficient to cover $900 million in fixed charges for nearly 17 months and fund potential $1 billion convertible bond redemptions in 2027.
- Canaccord Genuity and Cantor Fitzgerald significantly lowered MSTR price targets by up to 60%, with new targets set at $192 and $250 to reflect a narrowing premium over the company's Bitcoin Net Asset Value.
- Executive Chairman Michael Saylor dismissed credit risk concerns, stating the company plans to refinance existing debt and continues to target quarterly Bitcoin purchases regardless of market price.
- Market volatility has led to the launch of the SavvyShort (-2X) MSTR ETF (MSTZ) on the Toronto Stock Exchange, providing a new mechanism for investors to bet against MSTR's leveraged Bitcoin strategy.
- Despite crypto losses, the core software business showed stability with Q4 revenue of $123 million, slightly exceeding analyst expectations of $119 million.
- The company is initiating a new 'Bitcoin Security' program to address potential long-term risks from quantum computing, signaling a strategic shift toward technical custodianship.
- The current downturn has wiped out approximately $47 billion in unrealized profits in four months, leaving the treasury underwater for the first time since Saylor's accumulation began in 2020.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$163.09
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
36.52
Volume
+33% above avg
*Watch for short below $9.33 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 10, 2026 | 07:54 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volume Inflection PointOn the final day of data, volume surged to 134.9M and 110.4M shares, doubling the 20-day average near 65M. This massive volume accompanied a price drop from 293.15 to 255.43, indicating high-intensity selling and potential capitulation as price approaches the critical $231 support level.
- Bullish Engulfing Cluster at SupportCDLENGULFING was detected 6 times with a 50% success rate, most notably during the recovery from 235.93 to 299.98. These patterns coincide with historical Bitcoin stabilization near $60,000, suggesting tactical buyers are using engulfing candles to enter positions after aggressive drawdowns.
- Massive Volatility ExpansionDaily ranges expanded from approximately $40 per share early in the month to over $80 per share in recent sessions. The intraday lows of $231.51 and $231.92 establish a double-bottom formation, reflecting a shift from a steady downtrend into an extreme volatility regime driven by fair-value accounting losses.
- NAV Premium Contraction and Target SlashesInstitutional analyst sentiment has shifted negatively with price targets cut from $440 to as low as $192 by Cantor Fitzgerald. This fundamental down-shift follows a 17% gap down trailing the $12.4 billion GAAP loss, highlighting that the stock is now struggling to maintain its historical premium to Net Asset Value.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Bitcoin Acquisition AnnouncementTBD
- FASB Accounting Change Adoption UpdateTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-04-28
- MicroStrategy World 2026 Conference2026-04-20 / 2026-04-23
- Cash Dividend Pay Date (Quarterly)2026-03-12