Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS)|1dModal Stance
slightly bullish
Probability Score28%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$94.10
-1.6%
Probability: 28%
Base Target
$92.75
-3.0%
Probability: 54%
Bear Target
$91.85
-4.0%
Probability: 18%
Pivot$94.95
Resistance Level (R1)$107.01
Support Level (S1)$79.41
Chance of breaking R1 in 72h: 0%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:Breakout potential toward the $94.00 psychological resistance because the price just closed at the session high ($92.52) following a 521% projected revenue growth narrative reaching full market penetration. Historical intraday spikes (e.g., the move to $96.42 on day 22) show that NBIS is prone to rapid 3-4% explosive moves when key resistance levels at $92.60 are cleared on high volume.
The NVIDIA Blackwell integration news and the Meta/Microsoft contract validations provide the fundamental 'spark' for a momentum trade. As shorts are squeezed out of the $92.50 area, we expect a gamma-induced move toward the next liquidity pocket at $94.10. Risk: Failure to break the $92.65 intraday high would lead to a flat close. I'm 28% confident we hit $94.10 within 1 day as the 'execution phase' narrative accelerates.Base Case:Continued consolidation with a slight upward bias because the price is currently caught in a narrow price channel between $92.30 and $92.60, with volume supporting a gradual accumulation phase. The current trend shows a 0.21% average daily gain over the last 5 sessions, suggesting a stable ascent as the market preps for the Q4 earnings catalyst.
The lack of immediate macro catalysts before the weekend suggests that high-frequency traders will likely keep the stock within a 1% range of its current close. The scarcity of GPU capacity globally provides a floor for the valuation, preventing sharp sell-offs. This stability is significant because it allows the 20-day EMA to catch up to the price action. I'm 54% confident the stock will trade around $92.75 tomorrow as it holds its recent gains.Bear Case:Overextended short-term momentum because the price has closed marginally above the upper Bollinger Band area (implied) for 3 consecutive days, with the CDLDOJI appearing 14 times in the history as a signal of local exhaustion. A mean reversion to the 5-day moving average of $92.36 would represent a healthy 0.2-0.5% cooling off period after the recent run from $91.50.
The primary risk factor is the ICFR (Internal Control over Financial Reporting) weakness mentioned in the news summary, which can trigger sudden institutional de-risking if any accounting restatements are hinted at. While the secular AI trend is strong, short-term technical indicators suggest the stock is susceptible to a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dip. Risk: If the $92.30 support level holds, the downside will be limited to a shallow consolidation. I'm 18% confident we see $91.85 by tomorrow's close.
The NVIDIA Blackwell integration news and the Meta/Microsoft contract validations provide the fundamental 'spark' for a momentum trade. As shorts are squeezed out of the $92.50 area, we expect a gamma-induced move toward the next liquidity pocket at $94.10. Risk: Failure to break the $92.65 intraday high would lead to a flat close. I'm 28% confident we hit $94.10 within 1 day as the 'execution phase' narrative accelerates.Base Case:Continued consolidation with a slight upward bias because the price is currently caught in a narrow price channel between $92.30 and $92.60, with volume supporting a gradual accumulation phase. The current trend shows a 0.21% average daily gain over the last 5 sessions, suggesting a stable ascent as the market preps for the Q4 earnings catalyst.
The lack of immediate macro catalysts before the weekend suggests that high-frequency traders will likely keep the stock within a 1% range of its current close. The scarcity of GPU capacity globally provides a floor for the valuation, preventing sharp sell-offs. This stability is significant because it allows the 20-day EMA to catch up to the price action. I'm 54% confident the stock will trade around $92.75 tomorrow as it holds its recent gains.Bear Case:Overextended short-term momentum because the price has closed marginally above the upper Bollinger Band area (implied) for 3 consecutive days, with the CDLDOJI appearing 14 times in the history as a signal of local exhaustion. A mean reversion to the 5-day moving average of $92.36 would represent a healthy 0.2-0.5% cooling off period after the recent run from $91.50.
The primary risk factor is the ICFR (Internal Control over Financial Reporting) weakness mentioned in the news summary, which can trigger sudden institutional de-risking if any accounting restatements are hinted at. While the secular AI trend is strong, short-term technical indicators suggest the stock is susceptible to a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' dip. Risk: If the $92.30 support level holds, the downside will be limited to a shallow consolidation. I'm 18% confident we see $91.85 by tomorrow's close.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 1 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | WallStreetZen | TipRanks
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.72 (Positive)
- Nebius is identified as a high-conviction buy ahead of its Q4 earnings report on February 18, which is expected to serve as a catalyst for a stock rally.
- The rollout of AI Cloud 3.1 features NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs and enhanced governance tools, marking a significant technological milestone for 2026.
- Growth targets remain aggressive with estimates forecasting a 521% revenue increase in 2026 driven by infrastructure demand from major clients like Meta.
- The company's primary growth constraint is energizable supply rather than demand, supported by a massive 2.5 GW contracted power pipeline.
- Critical risks include potential changes in U.S. data center power-cost policies and identified weaknesses in internal financial controls (ICFR).
- Nebius' open-source Soperator and Papyrax tools provide a 'neutral' platform advantage, facilitating easier integration for varied AI workloads.
- Deepening partnerships with NVIDIA and significant validation from hyperscaler contracts have led to multiple analyst rating upgrades to 'Buy'.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$93.21
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
47.39
Volume
+29% above avg
*Momentum building — possible move above $107.01 resistance
Analysis Date
Jan 27, 2026 | 03:57 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volume ExplosionOn the most recent trading day, volume surged to 1,313,757 shares, representing a massive 90x increase over the previous day's volume of 14,532. This extreme liquidity spike at the 91.55 price level indicates a significant institutional entry or high-stakes position rebalancing ahead of the February 18 earnings catalyst.
- High-Frequency Doji IndecisionTechnical analysis identified 14 CDLDOJI patterns within a 20-day window, suggesting chronic market indecision despite a 50% historical success rate. This frequent neutral positioning, paired with a narrow close between 91.45 and 91.73, indicates a compression range that typically precedes a massive volatility expansion.
- Bullish Engulfing Signal StrengthCDLENGULFING patterns were detected 5 times with an 80% success rate (4 out of 5), providing a strong directional bias for long entries near the 91.46 support level. This high success rate suggests that buyers consistently overwhelm sellers during intraday dips, supporting the transition from narrative to execution-led growth.
- Price Ceiling Resistance near 94.86The stock reached a high of 94.86 on the 17th day of the sequence but failed to maintain momentum, closing significantly lower at 91.64. This $3.22 rejection from the peak establishes 94.86 as a critical resistance level that must be cleared to validate the projected 521% revenue growth narrative.
Market Regimeslightly bullish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Q1 2026 Earnings ReleaseTBD
- Investor Day Strategy Briefing2026-05-20 / 2026-05-21
- Annual Shareholders Meeting2026-04-15
- Ex-Dividend Date2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-12