SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI)|180dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score45%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$28.50
+36.6%
Probability: 20%
Base Target
$23.36
+12.0%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$17.50
-16.1%
Probability: 45%
Pivot$24.26
Resistance Level (R1)$29.33
Support Level (S1)$15.79
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 16%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The bull case is driven by the potential for S&P 500 inclusion and the realization of the 'Productivity Loop' strategy, which saw fee-based revenue jump 53% YoY to $443M. Over the next 5 months, if SoFi maintains its trajectory toward a 20%+ ROTCE and high-margin services continue to scale, the market will re-rate the stock from a 'lender' to a 'high-growth digital bank' multiple. The current RSI near 30 suggests extreme oversold conditions that historically lead to a 20-25% mean reversion when fundamentals remain intact.
Secondary catalysts include a potential Fed pivot toward rate cuts, which would re-ignite demand for SoFi's refinancing products. This is significant because every 50bps cut in the Fed funds rate adds an estimated $0.05 to SoFi's annual EPS target. Risk: failure to hit the 2026 targets would invalidate the multiple expansion. I'm 20% confident in a bull target of $28.50 as sentiment eventually follows the massive revenue growth trajectory.Base Case:The primary driver in the base case is the fundamental stabilization following the Q4 'blowout' report, where $1B in revenue and 30% YoY growth provide a valuation floor near historical P/S multiples. Over the next 5 months, we expect the stock to recover from its 'meltdown' phase as markets begin to price in the 54% EPS growth forecasted for 2026. Deposits reaching $37.5B significantly lowers the cost of funds, which should offset the technical damage over a longer accumulation period.
Macroeconomic stabilization will likely keep the stock in a consolidation range between $21.00 and $24.00 as it digests the recent capital infusion. This scenario assumes a 12% recovery from the current oversold level of $20.86, aligning with typical recovery patterns after fundamental beats followed by irrational selloffs. Risk: continued fintech sector volatility may cap the upside at $24.50. I'm 35% confident we hit $23.36 in approx 5 months as the fundamental/technical gap closes.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the technical breakdown below the 200-day EMA ($25.40) and the failure to reclaim the psychological $20.00 level on sustained volume. As of the last close, price is down 29% from its 4-month high of $29.51, and the negative momentum evidenced by 4 consecutive red weekly candles suggests a shift in institutional sentiment away from fintech growth toward defensive value. Elevated interest rates (5.25-5.50%) continue to pressure loan origination volumes and increase the cost of capital for SoFi's lending segment, which could compress margins despite revenue growth.
Secondary factors include the lingering dilution from the $1.7B capital raise and the 15% increase in short interest over the last 30 days. Risk: if the broader banking sector faces a credit contraction, SoFi's target could tumble toward the $16.50 liquidity zone. This is significant because technical 'death crosses' at these levels often precede a multi-month period of underperformance. I'm 45% confident we see $17.50 within 5 months due to bearish momentum dominance.
Secondary catalysts include a potential Fed pivot toward rate cuts, which would re-ignite demand for SoFi's refinancing products. This is significant because every 50bps cut in the Fed funds rate adds an estimated $0.05 to SoFi's annual EPS target. Risk: failure to hit the 2026 targets would invalidate the multiple expansion. I'm 20% confident in a bull target of $28.50 as sentiment eventually follows the massive revenue growth trajectory.Base Case:The primary driver in the base case is the fundamental stabilization following the Q4 'blowout' report, where $1B in revenue and 30% YoY growth provide a valuation floor near historical P/S multiples. Over the next 5 months, we expect the stock to recover from its 'meltdown' phase as markets begin to price in the 54% EPS growth forecasted for 2026. Deposits reaching $37.5B significantly lowers the cost of funds, which should offset the technical damage over a longer accumulation period.
Macroeconomic stabilization will likely keep the stock in a consolidation range between $21.00 and $24.00 as it digests the recent capital infusion. This scenario assumes a 12% recovery from the current oversold level of $20.86, aligning with typical recovery patterns after fundamental beats followed by irrational selloffs. Risk: continued fintech sector volatility may cap the upside at $24.50. I'm 35% confident we hit $23.36 in approx 5 months as the fundamental/technical gap closes.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the technical breakdown below the 200-day EMA ($25.40) and the failure to reclaim the psychological $20.00 level on sustained volume. As of the last close, price is down 29% from its 4-month high of $29.51, and the negative momentum evidenced by 4 consecutive red weekly candles suggests a shift in institutional sentiment away from fintech growth toward defensive value. Elevated interest rates (5.25-5.50%) continue to pressure loan origination volumes and increase the cost of capital for SoFi's lending segment, which could compress margins despite revenue growth.
Secondary factors include the lingering dilution from the $1.7B capital raise and the 15% increase in short interest over the last 30 days. Risk: if the broader banking sector faces a credit contraction, SoFi's target could tumble toward the $16.50 liquidity zone. This is significant because technical 'death crosses' at these levels often precede a multi-month period of underperformance. I'm 45% confident we see $17.50 within 5 months due to bearish momentum dominance.
Analyst Ratings
57.9%of 19 ratings
Buy
26.30%
Hold
57.90%
Sell
15.80%
Source(s): TipRanks | MarketBeat | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.72 (Positive)
- SoFi reported record quarterly revenue of $1B with 30% growth, fueled by blockchain launches and potential upcoming S&P 500 inclusion.
- The company successfully shifted toward fee-based revenue, which grew 53% to $443M, while total deposits reached a robust $37.5B.
- Management executed a $1.7B capital raise to fuel long-term expansion, providing a significant balance sheet cushion despite short-term stock dilution.
- Analysts are targeting an aggressive 54% EPS growth rate for SoFi, though some remain cautious due to high current valuations and market volatility.
- Recent stock pullbacks are being labeled as 'Strong Buy' opportunities by multiple analysts who cite consistent earnings beats and rapid user growth.
- SoFi has established clear FY2026 financial targets, focusing on Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) and expanding deposit tailwinds.
- The year 2026 is identified as a major revaluation year for the stock as the business model fully transitions from a lender to a diversified fintech leader.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$26.59
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
45.26
Volume
+17% above avg
*Watch for short below $15.79 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 07, 2026 | 09:47 AM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Regime with Volume ExpansionThe stock is experiencing extreme volatility with daily trading volumes frequently exceeding 300M-450M shares, significantly above historical norms. This expansion, coupled with wide intraday ranges such as the $26.53 to $32.73 swing, suggests high-stakes institutional positioning and a sharp shift in the market's volatility regime following the Q4 blowout revenue report.
- Bullish Engulfing with Support ValidationA CDLENGULFING pattern was detected and confirmed with a 100% success rate on the technical overview. This technical signal coincided with the stock stabilizing near the $22.31–$22.81 level, suggesting that despite the $1.7B capital raise pressure, buyers are stepping in at key psychological support zones to absorb the supply.
- Fundamental and Technical Sentiment MismatchAn anomaly exists where fundamental excellence—specifically 30% YoY growth and $1B in revenue—is meeting a 'meltdown' price action. The presence of two CDLHAMMER patterns indicates failed attempts at marking a bottom, but the transition to a fee-based revenue model (+53%) provides a fundamental divergnce that typically precedes a long-term trend reversal.
- High Volume Distribution vs. AccumulationOn the most recent trading day, the stock closed at $29.51 on 353M volume, recovering from a recent low of $22.81. This 29% recovery from the trough on sustaining high volume indicates a transition from panic distribution to aggressive accumulation as markets price in the 54% EPS growth catalyst for 2026.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Shareholder MeetingTBD
- Galileo Platform Expansion UpdateTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-04-28
- Investor Conference Presentation2026-03-04
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-10