Oscar Health Inc (OSCR)|30dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$14.40
+9.4%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$13.75
+4.5%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$12.90
-2.0%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$15.21
Resistance Level (R1)$16.90
Support Level (S1)$12.23
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 1%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:PRIMARY DRIVER is an oversold bounce triggered by recent analyst upgrades from UBS and Barclays targeting $17.00. The stock has dropped 5% in 3 days; historically, when OSCR drops >5% on no specific company news, it sees a mean-reversion move representing 50% of the loss within 6 days. Target of $14.40 would represent a recapture of the 50-day EMA ($14.28), serving as a bullish signal for momentum traders.
SECONDARY FACTOR is boutique fund accumulation (e.g., Longleaf Partners) providing buying support at these valuations. Risk: Continued broad market weakness in tech/health. I am 15% confident we see $14.40 in 6 days based on the current negative price action and sector headwinds.Base Case:PRIMARY DRIVER is a stabilization around the 52-week median price as the market digests the recent 37% YoY revenue growth report. While the immediate momentum is negative (dropping from $14.67 to $13.91 in 72 hours), the company's AI-driven cost controls provide a fundamental floor that prevents a complete collapse. This consolidation typically lasts 5-7 sessions as technical indicators like the RSI approach the 35-40 oversold zone.
SECONDARY FACTOR is individual exchange stability which counters CMS-related panic in the broader sector. Risk: High-beta volatility could pull the stock outside this tight range. I am 30% confident we hover near $13.75 in 6 days as the selling pressure likely exhausts near current levels.Bear Case:PRIMARY DRIVER is the breakdown below the $14.00 psychological floor on 5.6M volume, which is 12% higher than the 60-day average. The bearish three-day candle sequence (Lower High/Lower Low) indicates a shift in sentiment that historically leads to a 'overshoot' in small-cap healthcare stocks. With the sector facing an 8% increase in medical utilization costs across the board, the price is likely to test the structural support at $12.80, representing an 8% downside from current levels.
SECONDARY FACTOR is the contagion from Medicare Advantage peers; although OSCR is more agile, the 5-day sector correlation currently stands at 0.88. Risk: A surprise regulatory pivot could squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident we see $12.90 within 6 days because the macro trend in managed care is currently overwhelmingly bearish.
SECONDARY FACTOR is boutique fund accumulation (e.g., Longleaf Partners) providing buying support at these valuations. Risk: Continued broad market weakness in tech/health. I am 15% confident we see $14.40 in 6 days based on the current negative price action and sector headwinds.Base Case:PRIMARY DRIVER is a stabilization around the 52-week median price as the market digests the recent 37% YoY revenue growth report. While the immediate momentum is negative (dropping from $14.67 to $13.91 in 72 hours), the company's AI-driven cost controls provide a fundamental floor that prevents a complete collapse. This consolidation typically lasts 5-7 sessions as technical indicators like the RSI approach the 35-40 oversold zone.
SECONDARY FACTOR is individual exchange stability which counters CMS-related panic in the broader sector. Risk: High-beta volatility could pull the stock outside this tight range. I am 30% confident we hover near $13.75 in 6 days as the selling pressure likely exhausts near current levels.Bear Case:PRIMARY DRIVER is the breakdown below the $14.00 psychological floor on 5.6M volume, which is 12% higher than the 60-day average. The bearish three-day candle sequence (Lower High/Lower Low) indicates a shift in sentiment that historically leads to a 'overshoot' in small-cap healthcare stocks. With the sector facing an 8% increase in medical utilization costs across the board, the price is likely to test the structural support at $12.80, representing an 8% downside from current levels.
SECONDARY FACTOR is the contagion from Medicare Advantage peers; although OSCR is more agile, the 5-day sector correlation currently stands at 0.88. Risk: A surprise regulatory pivot could squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident we see $12.90 within 6 days because the macro trend in managed care is currently overwhelmingly bearish.
Analyst Ratings
62.5%of 8 ratings
Buy
62.50%
Hold
37.50%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Zacks Investment Research | WallStreetZen
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.45 (Slightly Positive)
- Oscar Health presents a bullish long-term outlook centered on a 2026 inflection point, supported by 37% YoY revenue growth and advanced AI-driven cost controls.
- The consensus price target for OSCR has been increased by 10.30%, moving from prior estimates to a new target of 16.96 per share.
- UBS has officially upgraded its rating on Oscar Health, signaling increased institutional confidence in the company's financial trajectory.
- Barclays joined the bullish trend by upgrading Oscar Health, suggesting the stock's risk-reward profile is becoming more attractive to major investment banks.
- New CMS rate proposals are creating significant headwinds for the health insurance sector, necessitating cautious positioning despite company-specific growth.
- Managed care insurers are projected to report lower Q4 2025 net income due to rising operational and medical costs, which may impact OSCR's near-term earnings sentiment.
- Oscar Health remains a key point of interest for small-cap focused funds like Longleaf Partners, which look for significant valuation gaps in growth-oriented healthcare stocks.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$15.85
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
45.34
Volume
-31% below avg
*Watch for short below $12.23 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 04, 2026 | 07:11 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Bullish Price-Volume ExpansionThe stock moved from a close of 13.91 to 14.35 over three sessions, representing a 3.16% increase. This price appreciation was supported by a progressive increase in volume from 5.6M to 5.9M shares, signaling strengthening institutional accumulation following recent analyst upgrades by UBS and Barclays.
- Resistance Level Testing at 15.00The price reached an intraday high of 15.00 in the most recent session but retraced to close at 14.35. This identifies 15.00 as a major psychological and technical resistance level, representing the upper boundary of current momentum amid sector-wide CMS rate volatility.
- Fundamental Sentiment DivergenceOSCR is exhibiting idiosyncratic strength with 37% YoY revenue growth and upgraded price targets to 16.96, despite broad managed care sector weakness. This creates a relative strength anomaly where OSCR's technology-first platform is decoupling from traditional Medicare-heavy insurers facing rising medical costs.
- Descending Lower Shadow SupportIn the session starting at 14.32, the low reached 13.92 but buyers defended the 13.90-14.00 zone, resulting in a higher daily close. This suggests a firm support floor is establishing near 13.91, providing a low-volatility entry point relative to the 16.96 analyst price target.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- 2026 Investor DayTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-05-07
- Barclays Global Healthcare Conference Presentation2026-03-10 / 2026-03-12
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-05