Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS)|90dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$11.50
+18.7%
Probability: 10%
Base Target
$9.00
-7.1%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$7.80
-19.5%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$9.97
Resistance Level (R1)$15.00
Support Level (S1)$4.67
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 5%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver for the bull case is the massive 900% OAS revenue growth acceleration, which suggests that the company is reaching a critical inflection point in defense contract scaling. Over the next 3 months, if the company announces the conversion of its substantial backlog into firm, high-margin defense orders, the price could quickly recover toward previous resistance at $12.17. The growth trajectory in autonomous defense infrastructure mirrors the early stages of high-performance tech cycles where revenue growth outpaces traditional valuation metrics.
Secondary factors include potential integration synergies from AIRO and an increase in NATO-aligned defense spending which acts as a macro tailwind. Technically, if the stock can print a 'double bottom' around the $9.00 level on decreasing volume, it would signal exhaustion of the current selling pressure. Risk factor: Political uncertainty regarding defense budget allocations could derail the bull thesis. I am 10% confident in a target of $11.50, representing a recovery to the mid-range of its recent trading channel, assuming a significant positive news catalyst.Base Case:The primary driver for a base case scenario is the offset between strong OAS segment growth (900% YoY) and the current technical correction. Over the next 3 months, price action is expected to stabilize as the market digests the YTD gains and awaits concrete backlog execution data. History shows that speculative robotics stocks often undergo a 'cooling-off' period after a 40%+ YTD rally; ONDS is currently in the middle of this mean-reversion process. The support established in late 2025 near the $8.50-$9.00 range should act as a buffer against further severe declines.
Secondary factors include the resilient defense spending environment which provides a floor for fundamental sentiment. While the valuation is high, the strategic pivot into counter-UAS technology is a high-demand niche that prevents a total collapse. Risk factor: Lower-than-expected quarterly revenue milestones could push this toward the bear target. I am 35% confident that the stock will trade sideways-to-down, settling around $9.00 as it seeks a new equilibrium. Therefore, I expect a moderate 7% decline from current levels over the next 96 days.Bear Case:The primary driver for this bearish outlook is a significant valuation-to-revenue mismatch, with a $5.2 billion market cap against only $110 million in projected 2026 revenue (a roughly 47x forward P/S ratio). Over the next 3 months, the technical breakdown from the $15.28 high to $9.69 (a 36.5% drop) suggests that the market is aggressively correcting for this over-extension. The recent weekly close at $9.69 broke below the psychological $10.00 support level on a volume spike of 507M, which is 15% higher than the previous month's average, signaling a lack of price floor near current levels.
Secondary factors include the high cost of capital for this capital-intensive robotics business and the potential for 'Hold' ratings to transition into 'Sells' if backlog conversion fails to meet high 2026 targets. If the stock fails to reclaim the 50-day EMA (currently around $11.20), it is likely to retest the early consolidation support at $7.50. Risk factor: A surprise large-scale defense contract announcement could temporarily squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident in a target of $7.80 given the current momentum collapse and valuation headwind.
Secondary factors include potential integration synergies from AIRO and an increase in NATO-aligned defense spending which acts as a macro tailwind. Technically, if the stock can print a 'double bottom' around the $9.00 level on decreasing volume, it would signal exhaustion of the current selling pressure. Risk factor: Political uncertainty regarding defense budget allocations could derail the bull thesis. I am 10% confident in a target of $11.50, representing a recovery to the mid-range of its recent trading channel, assuming a significant positive news catalyst.Base Case:The primary driver for a base case scenario is the offset between strong OAS segment growth (900% YoY) and the current technical correction. Over the next 3 months, price action is expected to stabilize as the market digests the YTD gains and awaits concrete backlog execution data. History shows that speculative robotics stocks often undergo a 'cooling-off' period after a 40%+ YTD rally; ONDS is currently in the middle of this mean-reversion process. The support established in late 2025 near the $8.50-$9.00 range should act as a buffer against further severe declines.
Secondary factors include the resilient defense spending environment which provides a floor for fundamental sentiment. While the valuation is high, the strategic pivot into counter-UAS technology is a high-demand niche that prevents a total collapse. Risk factor: Lower-than-expected quarterly revenue milestones could push this toward the bear target. I am 35% confident that the stock will trade sideways-to-down, settling around $9.00 as it seeks a new equilibrium. Therefore, I expect a moderate 7% decline from current levels over the next 96 days.Bear Case:The primary driver for this bearish outlook is a significant valuation-to-revenue mismatch, with a $5.2 billion market cap against only $110 million in projected 2026 revenue (a roughly 47x forward P/S ratio). Over the next 3 months, the technical breakdown from the $15.28 high to $9.69 (a 36.5% drop) suggests that the market is aggressively correcting for this over-extension. The recent weekly close at $9.69 broke below the psychological $10.00 support level on a volume spike of 507M, which is 15% higher than the previous month's average, signaling a lack of price floor near current levels.
Secondary factors include the high cost of capital for this capital-intensive robotics business and the potential for 'Hold' ratings to transition into 'Sells' if backlog conversion fails to meet high 2026 targets. If the stock fails to reclaim the 50-day EMA (currently around $11.20), it is likely to retest the early consolidation support at $7.50. Risk factor: A surprise large-scale defense contract announcement could temporarily squeeze shorts. I am 55% confident in a target of $7.80 given the current momentum collapse and valuation headwind.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 2 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): TipRanks | MarketBeat | WallStreetZen
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.45 (Slightly Positive)
- Ondas Holdings has seen a 900% YoY revenue increase in its OAS segment, driven by surging NATO spending and favorable defense drone legislation.
- Analysts label the stock a 'Hold' due to a mushrooming $5.2 billion valuation against a 2026 revenue guidance of only $110 million.
- The company is successfully transitioning into an integrated defense autonomy platform to meet the high demand for counter-UAS solutions.
- During the January 2026 Analyst Day, CEO Eric Brock emphasized the acceleration of robotics deployment despite macroeconomic pressures.
- AIRO, a key component of Ondas' strategy, is identified as a potentially misread defense stock with significant backlog conversion catalysts.
- Growth into 2026 faces headwinds from high capital costs and uncertain political policies affecting the broader robotics industry.
- The robotics sector at large is experiencing a 'Cambrian Explosion,' with the ROBO Global Index posting a strong 24% performance in 2025.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$10.29
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
55.38
Volume
-19% below avg
*Watch for short below $4.67 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 08, 2026 | 07:32 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Volume-Price Divergence and ExhaustionBetween days 7 and 12, trading volume surged from 210 million to a peak of 711 million shares as the price fell from $9.30 to $6.73. This 238% increase in volume during a 27% price decline indicates aggressive distribution and high-intensity selling pressure that may lead to a near-term bottom.
- Bearish Trend Acceleration and Support BreakthroughThe stock has established a clear downtrend, falling from a high of $15.28 on day 4 to a close of $5.81 on day 14. This 61.9% decline identifies a failure to maintain momentum above the $10.00 psychological level, with the most recent close at $5.81 marking a new period low on significantly elevated volume.
- Successive Engulfing Pattern VolatilityTechnical analysis identified two CDLENGULFING patterns with a 50% success rate, signaling high volatility regimes. The most recent daily price action shows a wide trading range between $4.95 and $6.69, suggesting that while the long-term sentiment is bearish, large intraday swings are creating opportunities for mean-reversion trades.
- Fundamental Valuation Stress SignalThe current market capitalization of $5.2 billion relative to a $110 million 2026 revenue target represents an extreme Price-to-Sales multiple. This fundamental stretch, combined with a 43% YTD rally followed by the current sharp retracement, indicates a transition from momentum growth to a valuation-driven correction phase.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Shareholder MeetingTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-05-14
- Commercial Drone Expo Showcase2026-04-05 / 2026-04-07
- Ex-Dividend Date2026-03-20
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-03-12