Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS)|365dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$42.15
+55.6%
Probability: 15%
Base Target
$29.80
+10.0%
Probability: 30%
Bear Target
$18.50
-31.7%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$41.35
Resistance Level (R1)$58.72
Support Level (S1)$9.71
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 4%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:Proprietary AI-enabled diagnostics and a successful pivot to a personalized 'hormonal health' platform serve as the primary drivers for a bull case reversal. If the company manages to maintain its 50% year-over-year growth rate while normalizing shipping and logistics costs, it could re-test the $40 resistance level once the market realizes that personalized telehealth is more 'sticky' than Amazon's generic pharmacy offering. Historically, high-growth healthcare stocks that maintain 40%+ top-line growth while remaining EBITDA positive command a 4x-5x sales multiple, which would justify a price target near $42.
Aggressive buybacks using the $1B cash reserves could reduce share count by 5-10%, providing a technical tailwind for EPS beats throughout 2026. Risk: regulatory crackdowns on compounding pharmacies or GLP-1 sourcing could instantly invalidate this thesis. I am 15% confident in this scenario because it requires a significant sentiment shift and a failure by Amazon to execute on its logistics advantage over the next 12 months.Base Case:Market stabilization around a $600M quarterly revenue run rate is the primary driver, as the current valuation of 2.4x 2026 sales already discounts many of the competitive fears. Over the next year, HIMS is likely to trade in a wide accumulation range between $22 and $32 as it absorbs the costs of international expansion into the U.K. and Canada. The $1B cash pile provides a significant safety net and the capacity for share buybacks, which historically provides a floor for enterprise software and health-tech stocks during transitional years.
The success of the Super Bowl branding campaign could stabilize subscriber growth at 15-20% despite Amazon's presence, leading to a modest recovery in price as sentiment shifts from 'fear of extinction' to 'survivor growth.' However, the transition from 'health as a luxury' to a mass-market commodity will cap upside potential. I am 30% confident in this base case, targeting a pivot back toward $29.80, which aligns with the current analyst mean and the 200-day moving average resistance level.Bear Case:Amazon Pharmacy's aggressive entry into the GLP-1 and telehealth space is the primary driver, threatening to compress HIMS's gross margins which have already seen pressure from strategic price cuts and shipping inefficiencies. Given that BofA Securities recently lowered their target to $29 with an Underperform rating, a breach of the psychological $25 support level could trigger a capitulation toward the $18.50 level, representing a 31% downside from current levels. Historical data shows that when a niche telehealth provider faces a trillion-dollar competitor, multiple compression typically leads to a 40-50% valuation haircut within a 12-month period.
The company's heavy reinvestment phase in 2026, as noted by analysts, suggests that free cash flow will remain constrained while marketing expenses like the Super Bowl campaign balloon. Risk: if the 'Hormonal Empire' strategy fails to gain traction among non-GLP-1 users, the high churn rate will lead to a downward spiral in LTV/CAC ratios. I am 55% confident in this bearish outlook because the technical breakdown is backed by a fundamental shift in the competitive landscape that HIMS is currently ill-equipped to fight without further margin erosion.
Aggressive buybacks using the $1B cash reserves could reduce share count by 5-10%, providing a technical tailwind for EPS beats throughout 2026. Risk: regulatory crackdowns on compounding pharmacies or GLP-1 sourcing could instantly invalidate this thesis. I am 15% confident in this scenario because it requires a significant sentiment shift and a failure by Amazon to execute on its logistics advantage over the next 12 months.Base Case:Market stabilization around a $600M quarterly revenue run rate is the primary driver, as the current valuation of 2.4x 2026 sales already discounts many of the competitive fears. Over the next year, HIMS is likely to trade in a wide accumulation range between $22 and $32 as it absorbs the costs of international expansion into the U.K. and Canada. The $1B cash pile provides a significant safety net and the capacity for share buybacks, which historically provides a floor for enterprise software and health-tech stocks during transitional years.
The success of the Super Bowl branding campaign could stabilize subscriber growth at 15-20% despite Amazon's presence, leading to a modest recovery in price as sentiment shifts from 'fear of extinction' to 'survivor growth.' However, the transition from 'health as a luxury' to a mass-market commodity will cap upside potential. I am 30% confident in this base case, targeting a pivot back toward $29.80, which aligns with the current analyst mean and the 200-day moving average resistance level.Bear Case:Amazon Pharmacy's aggressive entry into the GLP-1 and telehealth space is the primary driver, threatening to compress HIMS's gross margins which have already seen pressure from strategic price cuts and shipping inefficiencies. Given that BofA Securities recently lowered their target to $29 with an Underperform rating, a breach of the psychological $25 support level could trigger a capitulation toward the $18.50 level, representing a 31% downside from current levels. Historical data shows that when a niche telehealth provider faces a trillion-dollar competitor, multiple compression typically leads to a 40-50% valuation haircut within a 12-month period.
The company's heavy reinvestment phase in 2026, as noted by analysts, suggests that free cash flow will remain constrained while marketing expenses like the Super Bowl campaign balloon. Risk: if the 'Hormonal Empire' strategy fails to gain traction among non-GLP-1 users, the high churn rate will lead to a downward spiral in LTV/CAC ratios. I am 55% confident in this bearish outlook because the technical breakdown is backed by a fundamental shift in the competitive landscape that HIMS is currently ill-equipped to fight without further margin erosion.
Analyst Ratings
64.7%of 17 ratings
Buy
64.70%
Hold
29.40%
Sell
5.90%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.10 (Neutral)
- Hims & Hers achieved nearly 50% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching $600 million despite margin headwinds from facility expansion and GLP-1 shipping costs.
- Amazon Pharmacy's addition of Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy represents a significant competitive threat that triggered a 6.8% stock decline and questions the resilience of the HIMS telehealth model.
- Bank of America maintains an Underperform rating, having recently cut the price target to $29 from $32, stating that consensus expectations for 2026 may be overly optimistic.
- A major marketing catalyst is expected on February 8th as the company returns to the Super Bowl with its 'Rich People Live Longer' ad campaign aimed at mass-market expansion.
- The company maintains a strong balance sheet with over $1 billion in cash and investments, providing a significant buffer for stock buybacks and strategic R&D.
- Strategic focus is shifting toward a 'hormonal empire' which includes new diagnostic tracking and personalized AI-driven treatment matching to increase revenue per subscriber.
- Morgan Stanley has voiced concerns regarding slowing growth and competitive intensity, maintaining an Equalweight rating as the stock experiences high volatility.
- The failure to be included in Novo Nordisk's partner list has created short-term stock pressure, though long-term opportunities in lab testing and international markets like the UK remain.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$34.41
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
37.67
Volume
+32% above avg
*Watch for short below $9.71 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 01, 2026 | 03:06 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Bullish Engulfing Pattern Success RateThe CDLENGULFING signal was detected 7 times with an 85.7% success rate (6 out of 7). Given the current price volatility between the recent low of $23.97 and high of $72.98, this specific candlestick pattern serves as the most reliable indicator for identifying high-probability entry points during HIMS's current market regime.
- Extreme Volume Anomaly and Price VolatilityOn the 7th most recent trading day, volume peaked at 459.3M shares, a massive spike representing over 4x the baseline volume seen in calmer sessions like the 9th day (82.6M). This volume surge coincided with a wider daily range of $38.21 to $54.75, signaling intense institutional re-distribution and a sentiment shift following competitive news.
- Testing Major Support and Liquidity ZonesPrice action has established a critical support floor at $23.97, tested twice within the historical period. The recent recovery from $23.97 back toward the $42.55 close suggests strong demand at this level, while the $53.54 - $56.75 zone remains a primary resistance cluster that was previously broken during the rapid downward trend.
- Volatility Contraction Following Trend ReversalAfter a high-volatility period with daily ranges exceeding $20 (e.g., $49.05 to $72.98), the most recent session shows a range contraction to $11 ($35.00 to $46.01) alongside a close at $42.55. This suggests a shift from panic selling to a consolidation phase as the market awaits the Super Bowl catalyst and margin recovery data.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- GLP-1 Weight Loss Product Expansion PhaseTBD
- Investor & Analyst Briefing Day2026-05-15
- Dividend Yield Payment Distribution2026-03-27
- Ex-Dividend Date2026-03-12
- Q4 2025 Earnings Release & Webcast2026-02-23