Hims Hers Health Inc (HIMS)|180dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score55%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$22.00
+29.0%
Probability: 10%
Base Target
$18.50
+8.4%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$13.50
-20.9%
Probability: 55%
Pivot$32.96
Resistance Level (R1)$49.58
Support Level (S1)$0.63
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 0%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver for the bull case is a 'buy the dip' scenario predicated on the market overreacting to the GLP-1 news, ignoring the underlying 1.2M+ subscriber base and strong balance sheet that remains intact. While the $49 pill loss is significant, HIMS has successfully pivoted products before, and a potential pivot to branded GLP-1 distribution or a more robust GRAIL partnership coverage could restore investor faith. Technically, the stock is currently at its most oversold level in 2 years, reaching a price-to-sales ratio that has historically triggered significant insider buying and 20-30% relief rallies within 90-120 days.
Over the next 4 months, if HIMS can demonstrate that their platform-led digital healthcare model can sustain 25% revenue growth without illegal compounding, the stock could re-test the $21 Bank of America price target. A successful defense against the Novo Nordisk patent lawsuit or a favorable FDA classification update would be the explosive catalyst needed. I am 10% confident in a $22.00 target, as the current technical damage is severe and requires high-conviction fundamental news to reverse. Risk: Total ban on compounded GLP-1s by the FDA would invalidate this recovery path.Base Case:The primary driver for the base case is a period of forced consolidation and valuation reset as the market digests the loss of the GLP-1 catalyst, likely keeping the stock pinned between $15 and $20. Current price levels at $17.24 represent a significant discount to historical highs, but the 337% volume spike indicates it will take several months for the 'overhead supply' of disgruntled shareholders to be cleared out. The technical setup shows extreme oversold conditions (RSI near 20), which historically leads to a 'dead cat bounce' to the 20-day EMA before a long period of sideways accumulation.
Over the next 4 months, a stabilizing factor will be the core telehealth business which grew at a 40%+ CAGR prior to the weight-loss hype; this 'legacy' business provides a fundamental floor at 1.5x EV/Sales. However, institutional ownership is unlikely to return aggressively until there is clarity on the HHS referral and DOJ stance. I am 35% confident we see a target of $18.50, representing a minor recovery that remains well below previous resistance levels. Risk: Continued negative headlines regarding 'patient safety' could prevent any recovery.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the systemic collapse of the company's compounding growth thesis as legal and regulatory risks materialize into concrete losses, with the stock recently plunging 25% in a week to $17.24. Specifically, the forced withdrawal of the semaglutide pill results in a projected 15-20% hit to 2026 revenue estimates, while the pending DOJ investigation referred by HHS creates an overhang that traditionally leads to a 'valuation washout' where P/E multiples compress from 35x to sub-15x levels. Citigroup's $16.50 target is likely a ceiling rather than a floor as institutional investors exit 'illegal mass compounding' risks.
Over the next 4 months, the secondary risk involves a failure to diversify revenue through the GRAIL partnership, which is currently met with expert skepticism regarding multi-cancer detection reliability. If the $16.35 low of the most recent session is breached on high volume, technical support does not exist until the $12.00 psychological level. I am 55% confident in a $13.50 target as compounding revenue is permanently impaired and legal defense costs mount. Risk to this thesis: A surprise settlement with Novo Nordisk or a positive FDA reversal on compounding rules.
Over the next 4 months, if HIMS can demonstrate that their platform-led digital healthcare model can sustain 25% revenue growth without illegal compounding, the stock could re-test the $21 Bank of America price target. A successful defense against the Novo Nordisk patent lawsuit or a favorable FDA classification update would be the explosive catalyst needed. I am 10% confident in a $22.00 target, as the current technical damage is severe and requires high-conviction fundamental news to reverse. Risk: Total ban on compounded GLP-1s by the FDA would invalidate this recovery path.Base Case:The primary driver for the base case is a period of forced consolidation and valuation reset as the market digests the loss of the GLP-1 catalyst, likely keeping the stock pinned between $15 and $20. Current price levels at $17.24 represent a significant discount to historical highs, but the 337% volume spike indicates it will take several months for the 'overhead supply' of disgruntled shareholders to be cleared out. The technical setup shows extreme oversold conditions (RSI near 20), which historically leads to a 'dead cat bounce' to the 20-day EMA before a long period of sideways accumulation.
Over the next 4 months, a stabilizing factor will be the core telehealth business which grew at a 40%+ CAGR prior to the weight-loss hype; this 'legacy' business provides a fundamental floor at 1.5x EV/Sales. However, institutional ownership is unlikely to return aggressively until there is clarity on the HHS referral and DOJ stance. I am 35% confident we see a target of $18.50, representing a minor recovery that remains well below previous resistance levels. Risk: Continued negative headlines regarding 'patient safety' could prevent any recovery.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the systemic collapse of the company's compounding growth thesis as legal and regulatory risks materialize into concrete losses, with the stock recently plunging 25% in a week to $17.24. Specifically, the forced withdrawal of the semaglutide pill results in a projected 15-20% hit to 2026 revenue estimates, while the pending DOJ investigation referred by HHS creates an overhang that traditionally leads to a 'valuation washout' where P/E multiples compress from 35x to sub-15x levels. Citigroup's $16.50 target is likely a ceiling rather than a floor as institutional investors exit 'illegal mass compounding' risks.
Over the next 4 months, the secondary risk involves a failure to diversify revenue through the GRAIL partnership, which is currently met with expert skepticism regarding multi-cancer detection reliability. If the $16.35 low of the most recent session is breached on high volume, technical support does not exist until the $12.00 psychological level. I am 55% confident in a $13.50 target as compounding revenue is permanently impaired and legal defense costs mount. Risk to this thesis: A surprise settlement with Novo Nordisk or a positive FDA reversal on compounding rules.
Analyst Ratings
64.7%of 17 ratings
Buy
64.70%
Hold
29.40%
Sell
5.90%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment-0.78 (Negative)
- Hims & Hers has officially halted its $49 compounded semaglutide pill offering just days after launch following constructive conversations with industry stakeholders and regulatory pushback.
- Novo Nordisk has filed a major U.S. patent infringement lawsuit seeking significant damages and a permanent ban on Hims' unauthorized versions of its blockbuster drug Wegovy.
- The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has referred Hims & Hers to the DOJ for potential violations of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act, escalating legal risks to a criminal level.
- Bank of America analysts have lowered their HIMS price target and warned of significant downside risks to future revenue and profits due to the loss of the GLP-1 compounding growth engine.
- Citigroup maintains a Sell rating on the stock and has aggressively slashed its price target to $16.50, citing the collapsing margins and regulatory uncertainty surrounding the business model.
- Regulatory closing of the GLP-1 compounding loophole removes a vital near-term revenue catalyst that investors had previously priced into the stock's valuation.
- Hims & Hers is attempting to pivot toward preventive care by launching a $689 multi-cancer early detection test with Grail, though medical experts question its readiness for widespread use.
- The company faces structural headwinds as sequential revenue growth decelerates while its valuation remains at a premium compared to other telehealth peers.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$32.95
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
36.56
Volume
+80% above avg
*Watch for short below $0.63 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 11, 2026 | 07:49 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volume Anomaly with Price RejectionOn the most recent trading days, volume surged to over 133M shares, climaxing at a peak of 212.2M. This massive volume spike occurred as the stock reached an intraday high of 65.29 before closing significantly lower at 49.78, indicating a potential 'blow-off top' and aggressive institutional distribution following the GLP-1 compounding news.
- Bearish Price Action and Range BreakdownThe stock collapsed from an open of 27.11 to a low of 16.35, representing a 39.6% intraday swing. This breakdown breached psychological support levels and coincides with a CDLENGULFING signal that successfully predicted the downward momentum, suggesting the previous bullish trend has suffered structural damage.
- High Volatility Regime ShiftThe average daily trading range expanded from roughly $3.00-5.00 to over $15.00 in the latest sessions (Low of 49.60 to High of 65.29). This volatility expansion, coupled with negative analyst revisions from BofA and Citi to $21 and $16.50, signals a transition from a stable growth trend to a high-risk, news-driven speculative regime.
- Exhaustion Gap and Failed RecoveryDespite a massive high of 60.55 in the final session, the stock closed at its daily low of 52.54. This 'closing at the lows' pattern on high volume suggests that dip-buying appetite is being overwhelmed by legal uncertainty and regulatory scrutiny, increasing the probability of a 'washout' period toward the $35.00 support level.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Expansion of GLP-1 Compounded Program PortfolioTBD
- Investor and Analyst DayTBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Release2026-05-04
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-02-23