Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)|180dModal Stance
bullish
Probability Score30%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$275.60
+29.1%
Probability: 30%
Base Target
$238.50
+11.7%
Probability: 55%
Bear Target
$172.40
-19.2%
Probability: 15%
Pivot$213.71
Resistance Level (R1)$266.94
Support Level (S1)$160.35
Chance of breaking R1 in 72h: 10%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver for the bull case is the accelerating Instinct MI350/MI400 series deployment because Lisa Su's confirmation of server share gains suggests AMD is capturing a larger slice of the accelerating AI infrastructure spend. With hyperscaler CapEx projected to reach $650 billion by 2026, AMD is positioned for a massive revenue catch-up as supply constraints ease. Historically, after sharp 15-20% earnings-induced sell-offs, AMD has demonstrated the ability to rally 30-40% over the following quarter when underlying fundamentals remain intact.
Secondary factors include the appointment of Ariel Kelman to drive enterprise AI marketing and potential tariff exemptions for TSMC-linked cloud projects which protect margins for key customers like Amazon and Google. Technical support at $190 was defended on massive volume (306M), a classic signal of institutional accumulation at a discount. Risk: a delay in the MI400 roadmap would invalidate this trajectory. I'm 30% confident we hit $275.60 over the next 4 months as it would represent a retest of the $267 high plus a standard volatility extension. Therefore, the bull case remains the most plausible path for long-term holders.Base Case:The primary driver for the base case is the stabilization around the current $213 level as the market absorbs the 17% post-earnings drawdown because AMD's fundamental data center growth of 39% YOY provides a solid valuation floor. Over the next 4 months, the stock is likely to trade within a range of $200-$245, tracking the $650B hyperscaler CapEx cycle. The current PE ratio has compressed back toward historical norms, suggesting the 'de-risking' phase mentioned in reports is largely complete.
Secondary factors include consistent server share gains against Intel and the rollout of the MI350 series which keeps AMD relevant in the GPU space. Technical patterns like the CDLDOJI and CDLHAMMAR identified in the history have shown 100% success in indicating short-term bottoms. Risk: increased competition from Nvidia's roadmap could cap the upside. I'm 55% confident we see $238.50 within the next 4 months as the stock recovers its moving average equilibrium. Therefore, I anticipate moderate appreciation from these levels.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the stretching of server CPU delivery times in China to 10 weeks because this supply chain constraint limits AMD's ability to capitalize on its $50B China TAM in the immediate future. Furthermore, the Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $9.8 billion missed 'blue sky' analyst estimates, suggesting that the AI growth ramp may be more linear than exponential. Technically, the series of lower highs since the $267 peak shows a clear distribution pattern where institutions are trimming positions on every bounce.
Secondary factors include an RSI that has failed to recapture the 50-midline and the broader sector rotation into value stocks which could strip 12-15% of multiple premium from high-beta chips. If the critical support at $190 breaks, the next logical liquidity zone is the $165 gap-fill area. This scenario assumes a macro slowdown or a failure to resolve China shipment bottlenecks. Risk: tariff exemptions for TSMC customers could provide a surprise cushion. I'm 15% confident in a $172.40 target because the growth story is too strong for a permanent breakdown.
Secondary factors include the appointment of Ariel Kelman to drive enterprise AI marketing and potential tariff exemptions for TSMC-linked cloud projects which protect margins for key customers like Amazon and Google. Technical support at $190 was defended on massive volume (306M), a classic signal of institutional accumulation at a discount. Risk: a delay in the MI400 roadmap would invalidate this trajectory. I'm 30% confident we hit $275.60 over the next 4 months as it would represent a retest of the $267 high plus a standard volatility extension. Therefore, the bull case remains the most plausible path for long-term holders.Base Case:The primary driver for the base case is the stabilization around the current $213 level as the market absorbs the 17% post-earnings drawdown because AMD's fundamental data center growth of 39% YOY provides a solid valuation floor. Over the next 4 months, the stock is likely to trade within a range of $200-$245, tracking the $650B hyperscaler CapEx cycle. The current PE ratio has compressed back toward historical norms, suggesting the 'de-risking' phase mentioned in reports is largely complete.
Secondary factors include consistent server share gains against Intel and the rollout of the MI350 series which keeps AMD relevant in the GPU space. Technical patterns like the CDLDOJI and CDLHAMMAR identified in the history have shown 100% success in indicating short-term bottoms. Risk: increased competition from Nvidia's roadmap could cap the upside. I'm 55% confident we see $238.50 within the next 4 months as the stock recovers its moving average equilibrium. Therefore, I anticipate moderate appreciation from these levels.Bear Case:The primary driver for the bear case is the stretching of server CPU delivery times in China to 10 weeks because this supply chain constraint limits AMD's ability to capitalize on its $50B China TAM in the immediate future. Furthermore, the Q1 2026 revenue guidance of $9.8 billion missed 'blue sky' analyst estimates, suggesting that the AI growth ramp may be more linear than exponential. Technically, the series of lower highs since the $267 peak shows a clear distribution pattern where institutions are trimming positions on every bounce.
Secondary factors include an RSI that has failed to recapture the 50-midline and the broader sector rotation into value stocks which could strip 12-15% of multiple premium from high-beta chips. If the critical support at $190 breaks, the next logical liquidity zone is the $165 gap-fill area. This scenario assumes a macro slowdown or a failure to resolve China shipment bottlenecks. Risk: tariff exemptions for TSMC customers could provide a surprise cushion. I'm 15% confident in a $172.40 target because the growth story is too strong for a permanent breakdown.
Analyst Ratings
78.0%of 50 ratings
Buy
78.00%
Hold
20.00%
Sell
2.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Nasdaq
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.35 (Slightly Positive)
- AMD's Q4 results featured revenue and EPS beats, but the stock suffered a massive 17% one-day decline as Q1 revenue guidance of $9.8 billion failed to satisfy high AI growth expectations.
- KeyBanc raised its AMD price target to $300, emphasizing that server demand is defying traditional seasonal weakness and data center momentum remains strong.
- Supply chain transparency is a growing risk, with reports indicating server CPU delivery lead times for AMD products in China have extended to as much as 10 weeks.
- AMD has appointed Salesforce veteran Ariel Kelman as CMO to sharpen its AI and Data Center marketing strategy as the company scales the MI450 AI accelerator.
- Institutional support remains evident during the selloff, with Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest purchasing over 141,000 shares of AMD to capitalize on the price dip.
- Potential Trump administration tariff exemptions linked to TSMC investments could alleviate cost pressures for Big Tech AI data centers, benefiting AMD's customer base.
- Investors should watch the upcoming MI400 launch as a primary mid-term catalyst to reclaim market share from Nvidia in the high-performance AI chip segment.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$221.67
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
49.71
Volume
-46% below avg
*Watch for entry above $266.94 resistance breakout
Analysis Date
Feb 11, 2026 | 07:25 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Abnormal Volume Spike and LiquidationOn the second to last recorded day, volume surged to 737.5M shares, representing a 350% increase over the 20-day average. This massive volume coincided with a high of 240.10 and a close of 214.90, signaling a catastrophic breakdown in buyer support and institutional liquidation ahead of the final drop to 164.67.
- Severe Gap Down and Support BreachThe stock experienced a significant price gap down from a previous close of 214.90 to an open of 160.12, representing a 25.4% overnight decline. This move breached the critical $180 technical support level mentioned in news reports, shifting the market structure into a deep de-risking phase and a new low-volatility regime.
- Bullish Hammer and Doji Success SynergyTechnical indicators CDLDOJI and CDLHAMMER both recorded a 100% success rate during this period. The presence of these patterns amidst the 4 detected CDLENGULFING signals suggests that while trend reversals are frequent, only specific bottoming candles have accurately predicted the short-term bounces in this high-volatility environment.
- Price-Volume Decoupling AnomalyDespite record annual revenue and 39% data center growth, the stock fell 17% post-earnings. The data shows volume staying consistently above 200M shares during the final 5 sessions as price fell from 252.92 to 164.67, indicating a 'selling into strength' anomaly where fundamental outperformance failed to offset high growth expectations.
Market Regimebullish
Upcoming Catalysts
- AMD Financial Analyst Day 2026TBD
- Q1 2026 Earnings Call2026-04-28
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media & Telecom Conference2026-03-02 / 2026-03-05
- Q4 2025 Earnings Call2026-01-27
- Consumer Electronics Show (CES) 2026 Keynote Recap and Ecosystem Showcases2026-01-05 / 2026-01-08