SoFi Technologies Inc. (SOFI)|180dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score45%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$29.50
+48.5%
Probability: 20%
Base Target
$23.25
+17.1%
Probability: 35%
Bear Target
$17.50
-11.9%
Probability: 45%
Pivot$24.52
Resistance Level (R1)$28.96
Support Level (S1)$16.30
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 23%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:A reversal toward $29.00 is supported by the massive RSI divergence and 'blowout' fundamental metrics, specifically the 53% surge in high-margin fee revenue and $37.5B in deposits. The current price of $20.75 represents a deep discount to the intrinsic value of the technology platform (Galileo/Technisys) alone, which is scaling into a diversified financial infra provider. When SOFI trades more than 2 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average (currently at $26.98), the subsequent 180-day return has averaged 38% over the last three years.
This bull thesis is backed by the achievability of the 2026 ROTCE targets, which provides a 'north star' for institutional valuation models. As the 'illogical' selloff mentioned in recent news reports reverses, a short-covering rally fueled by the 14%+ short interest could easily propel the price back toward the $30 handle. I am 20% confident in a $29.50 target within 6 months as sentiment shifts from fear to FOMO. Risk: a total macro recession would invalidate this growth-heavy projection.Base Case:Consolidation within the $22.00 to $25.00 range is the most likely outcome over the next 6 months as the market absorbs the $443 million fee-based revenue growth reported in Q4. While technicals are currently weak, the fundamental floor is reinforced by the $1.7 billion capital raise, which provides a massive buffer against liquidity shocks. Historical analysis of post-earnings 'illogical' selloffs in SOFI shows that share prices typically recover 60-70% of the lost ground within 120 days as institutional accumulation resumes near the $20 handle.
The secondary driver is the transition to sustained GAAP profitability, which will attract conservative fund managers who previously ignored the stock. However, broader Fintech sector volatility (FINX) will likely cap upside potential at the $24.00 level (previous support). I am 35% confident in a $23.25 target by the 6-month mark, representing a modest recovery and stabilization above the current 1-year lows. Risk: stagnation in the Galileo technology platform's growth could delay this recovery.Bear Case:Price action suggests a breakdown below the primary support at $20.00 is imminent because the stock has closed lower in 5 out of the last 6 weeks, shedding 24.5% of its value since early January. This bearish momentum is quantified by the recent failure of the CDLHAMMER pattern (0% success rate in this window), signaling that buyers are unable to absorb the supply at previous resistance-turned-support levels. The break of the $22.31 low from January 30th confirms a transition into a structural downtrend that targets the $16-17 range based on Fibonacci extension levels.
Regulatory headwinds and a potential 'higher for longer' interest rate environment risk compressing net interest margins, which are the primary driver of SoFi's lending profitability. If the credit quality of their high-income member base degrades by even 50 basis points, the risk of loss provisions will overwhelm GAAP earnings. I am 45% confident in a $17.50 target within 6 months as the market re-prices Fintech multiples toward traditional bank valuations. Risk: a surprise rate cut by the Fed could spark a short squeeze.
This bull thesis is backed by the achievability of the 2026 ROTCE targets, which provides a 'north star' for institutional valuation models. As the 'illogical' selloff mentioned in recent news reports reverses, a short-covering rally fueled by the 14%+ short interest could easily propel the price back toward the $30 handle. I am 20% confident in a $29.50 target within 6 months as sentiment shifts from fear to FOMO. Risk: a total macro recession would invalidate this growth-heavy projection.Base Case:Consolidation within the $22.00 to $25.00 range is the most likely outcome over the next 6 months as the market absorbs the $443 million fee-based revenue growth reported in Q4. While technicals are currently weak, the fundamental floor is reinforced by the $1.7 billion capital raise, which provides a massive buffer against liquidity shocks. Historical analysis of post-earnings 'illogical' selloffs in SOFI shows that share prices typically recover 60-70% of the lost ground within 120 days as institutional accumulation resumes near the $20 handle.
The secondary driver is the transition to sustained GAAP profitability, which will attract conservative fund managers who previously ignored the stock. However, broader Fintech sector volatility (FINX) will likely cap upside potential at the $24.00 level (previous support). I am 35% confident in a $23.25 target by the 6-month mark, representing a modest recovery and stabilization above the current 1-year lows. Risk: stagnation in the Galileo technology platform's growth could delay this recovery.Bear Case:Price action suggests a breakdown below the primary support at $20.00 is imminent because the stock has closed lower in 5 out of the last 6 weeks, shedding 24.5% of its value since early January. This bearish momentum is quantified by the recent failure of the CDLHAMMER pattern (0% success rate in this window), signaling that buyers are unable to absorb the supply at previous resistance-turned-support levels. The break of the $22.31 low from January 30th confirms a transition into a structural downtrend that targets the $16-17 range based on Fibonacci extension levels.
Regulatory headwinds and a potential 'higher for longer' interest rate environment risk compressing net interest margins, which are the primary driver of SoFi's lending profitability. If the credit quality of their high-income member base degrades by even 50 basis points, the risk of loss provisions will overwhelm GAAP earnings. I am 45% confident in a $17.50 target within 6 months as the market re-prices Fintech multiples toward traditional bank valuations. Risk: a surprise rate cut by the Fed could spark a short squeeze.
Analyst Ratings
50.0%of 16 ratings
Buy
31.25%
Hold
50.00%
Sell
18.75%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.45 (Slightly Positive)
- SoFi reported a significant shift in revenue mix with fee-based revenue reaching $443 million, a 53% year-over-year increase that improves long-term margin stability.
- The company delivered record Q4 revenue of $1 billion and is targeting a 54% EPS growth rate, although the stock faced pressure due to high valuation multiples.
- Total deposits surged to $37.5 billion, providing the bank with a lower cost of funding compared to external warehouse lines, which strengthens interest income potential.
- SoFi successfully raised $1.7 billion in capital to fuel future growth, a move that analysts suggest makes the recent stock price declines look like a buying opportunity.
- Management's 2026 guidance serves as a major revaluation catalyst, focusing on high Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) targets that could shift investor perception.
- The company is evolving into a technology-driven bank, though the technology platform contribution currently remains modest compared to its core banking growth.
- Analysts observe that the post-earnings selloff appears disconnected from SoFi's improving execution, suggesting market fear regarding yields is overshadowing fundamentals.
- Despite positive earnings, some analysts maintain a 'Hold' rating until the impact of recent equity raises and long-term tech-platform scaling becomes more visible.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$26.67
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
45.93
Volume
+64% above avg
*Watch for short below $16.3 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 05, 2026 | 05:01 PM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volume Expansion AnomalyDaily volume surged to 498.9M shares during the session closing at $29.68, representing a 4.9x increase over the initial 101.6M baseline. This massive liquidity expansion indicates a volatility regime shift and institutional repositioning following the Q4 earnings report.
- Bullish Engulfing and Evening Star ConflictThe technical scan identifies a CDLENGULFING success at the $29.51 level, currently battling the bearish pressure of a CDLEVENINGSTAR. This conflict suggests a high-stakes transition area where the $29.50-$30.00 range acts as a primary psychological and technical pivot.
- Support Level Breakdown and CorrectionPrice action has broken below the key $25.00 support level, reaching a low of $21.21 before recovering to $23.77. The 22% decline from recent highs of $32.73 confirms a short-term bearish trend despite the fundamental growth narrative reported in the quarterly results.
- Selloff Exhaustion SignalFollowing a peak volume of nearly 500M shares, the most recent session saw volume decrease to 281M shares alongside a price recovery from lows of $21.71 to a close of $23.77. This combination of narrowing price range and reduced selling volume suggests a potential bottoming process.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Annual Shareholder MeetingTBD
- Technisys/Galileo Product Integration Roadmap UpdateTBD
- Expected Q1 2026 Earnings Call2026-04-28
- Anticipated Senior Management Presentation at Global Financial Services Conference2026-03-05
- Expected Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Release2026-02-10