Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)|180dModal Stance
slightly bearish
Probability Score22%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$315.00
+45.8%
Probability: 25%
Base Target
$244.50
+13.2%
Probability: 53%
Bear Target
$178.40
-17.4%
Probability: 22%
Pivot$210.77
Resistance Level (R1)$272.31
Support Level (S1)$154.45
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 13%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The primary driver for the $315.00 bull target over the next 6 months is the acceleration of the MI350/MI400 product cycle, which KeyBanc and other top-tier analysts suggest could justify a $300+ valuation. AMD is successfully positioning itself as the only viable alternative to Nvidia in the $50B Data Center TAM, with record annual revenue in that segment already showing 38% YoY growth. Historically, when AMD experiences a CDLDOJI or CDLHAMMER reversal pattern at the bottom of a 20% correction (as seen in recent weeks with a 100% success rate), the subsequent 6-month recovery often exceeds 40%.
Furthermore, the expansion of the GIGABYTE partnership and the AI PC integration provide a high-margin revenue stream that market participants are currently discounting. With the Dow hitting 50,000, market sentiment is overwhelmingly skewed toward 'AI-winners,' and AMD's market share gain in the server CPU space (now roughly 33%) provides a stable fundamental floor. I am 25% confident we reach the $315 level because the rate of change in AMD’s product pipeline is accelerating faster than that of its peers. Risk: an Intel turnaround in the data center could cap these gains.Base Case:Over the next 6 months, AMD is expected to consolidate its gains with a target of $244.50, reflecting a 13.2% appreciation from current levels. This is driven by the Instinct MI300 GPU ramp which is projected to contribute over $3.5B in revenue this year, offsetting the cyclical softness in PC and embedded divisions. The historical pattern of AMD following a 17% single-day plunge is a period of high-volatility sideways movement (±12% range) for 3-4 months before the next leg up.
Secondary support is provided by the multi-year GPU agreement with OpenAI and the 2026 PC refresh cycle beginning to be priced in by institutional analysts. While supply chain bottlenecks in China pose a risk, the 50-day EMA at $222 serves as a magnet for price action. I'm 53% confident in this target as it aligns with the consensus analyst median target of $255 while adjusting for the recent guidance caution. Risk: extended supply shortages for MI350 components could delay this recovery.Bear Case:AMD's valuation at 55x Free Cash Flow (FCF) leaves zero margin for error as gaming and embedded segments face 15-20% seasonal headwinds. The primary driver for this bear case is the risk of multiple compression toward the 5-year average of 38x FCF, which would imply a price of roughly $155 if AI revenue growth merely meets rather than exceeds the current lofty expectations. The technical breakdown below the $195 support level twice in the last 10 weeks shows that institutional floors are weakening during volatility spikes.
Over the next 6 months, the 'China Asterisk' remains a significant risk factor, as tightening export regulations could curtail up to 15% of projected data center upside. I am 22% confident in this $178.40 target because while the structural AI story is strong, the current price is highly susceptible to a broader sector rotation out of high-multiple growth stocks if interest rates remain elevated for longer than expected. Risk: a faster-than-expected recovery in the gaming segment would invalidate this thesis.
Furthermore, the expansion of the GIGABYTE partnership and the AI PC integration provide a high-margin revenue stream that market participants are currently discounting. With the Dow hitting 50,000, market sentiment is overwhelmingly skewed toward 'AI-winners,' and AMD's market share gain in the server CPU space (now roughly 33%) provides a stable fundamental floor. I am 25% confident we reach the $315 level because the rate of change in AMD’s product pipeline is accelerating faster than that of its peers. Risk: an Intel turnaround in the data center could cap these gains.Base Case:Over the next 6 months, AMD is expected to consolidate its gains with a target of $244.50, reflecting a 13.2% appreciation from current levels. This is driven by the Instinct MI300 GPU ramp which is projected to contribute over $3.5B in revenue this year, offsetting the cyclical softness in PC and embedded divisions. The historical pattern of AMD following a 17% single-day plunge is a period of high-volatility sideways movement (±12% range) for 3-4 months before the next leg up.
Secondary support is provided by the multi-year GPU agreement with OpenAI and the 2026 PC refresh cycle beginning to be priced in by institutional analysts. While supply chain bottlenecks in China pose a risk, the 50-day EMA at $222 serves as a magnet for price action. I'm 53% confident in this target as it aligns with the consensus analyst median target of $255 while adjusting for the recent guidance caution. Risk: extended supply shortages for MI350 components could delay this recovery.Bear Case:AMD's valuation at 55x Free Cash Flow (FCF) leaves zero margin for error as gaming and embedded segments face 15-20% seasonal headwinds. The primary driver for this bear case is the risk of multiple compression toward the 5-year average of 38x FCF, which would imply a price of roughly $155 if AI revenue growth merely meets rather than exceeds the current lofty expectations. The technical breakdown below the $195 support level twice in the last 10 weeks shows that institutional floors are weakening during volatility spikes.
Over the next 6 months, the 'China Asterisk' remains a significant risk factor, as tightening export regulations could curtail up to 15% of projected data center upside. I am 22% confident in this $178.40 target because while the structural AI story is strong, the current price is highly susceptible to a broader sector rotation out of high-multiple growth stocks if interest rates remain elevated for longer than expected. Risk: a faster-than-expected recovery in the gaming segment would invalidate this thesis.
Analyst Ratings
78.0%of 50 ratings
Buy
78.00%
Hold
20.00%
Sell
2.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Nasdaq
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.45 (Slightly Positive)
- AMD secured a significant multi-year GPU supply agreement with OpenAI, positioning its chips as a verified alternative to Nvidia for hyperscale AI workloads.
- Server CPU supply is tightening in China with lead times for AMD products extending up to 10 weeks, creating potential revenue realization delays.
- KeyBanc raised its price target to $300, highlighting that data center server demand is defying traditional seasonal weakness.
- Q1 2026 revenue guidance was set at $9.8 billion, a figure that disappointed investors following high expectations for faster AI revenue scaling.
- Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs purchased over 141,000 shares of AMD during the post-earnings 17% crash, signaling institutional 'buy the dip' activity.
- A new global partnership with OVHcloud to deploy Bare Metal servers using EPYC processors provides a concrete catalyst for European cloud market expansion.
- Analysts project that the upcoming MI350 and MI400 GPU series will be the primary drivers for gross margin expansion in the second half of 2026.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$221.47
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
49.90
Volume
-16% below avg
*Weakness near $154.45 — monitor for support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 10, 2026 | 07:25 AM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Panic Volume SpikeOn the 15th trading day, volume skyrocketed to 737,538,554 shares, more than triple the 20-day average of approximately 220M. This massive volume accompanied a price drop from 226.44 to 214.90, signaling a high-intensity liquidation event or institutional reallocation following the record data center revenue report.
- Gap Down and Volatility Regime ShiftA significant price gap occurred between the 15th day close of 214.90 and the 16th day open of 160.12, representing a 25.5% overnight collapse. This move effectively reset the trading range from a $200-$260 consolidation zone to a new, lower volatility regime centered between $150 and $170.
- Candlestick Pattern ConfluenceTechnical analysis tools detected 1 CDLDOJI and 1 CDLHAMMER pattern with 100% success rates. Specifically, the Hammer formation at the recent $149.22 low suggests a potential bottoming process as buyers begin to step in after the 17% single-day plunge triggered by conservative Q1 guidance.
- Support Level TestingThe stock is currently testing a critical psychological and structural support level near $150.00. Lowest points over the last 5 days (149.85, 149.22, and 150.18) indicate strong bid protection at this level, despite the bearish sentiment surrounding supply chain bottlenecks and China delivery lead times.
Market Regimeslightly bearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- AMD Advancing AI EventTBD
- Annual Meeting of Stockholders2026-06-15
- Computex Taipei Keynote / Product Roadmap Update2026-06-02 / 2026-06-05
- Q1 2026 Earnings Call2026-04-28
- Q1 2026 Dividend Ex-Date (Anticipated)2026-03-15