Ondas Holdings Inc. (ONDS)|180dModal Stance
bearish
Probability Score58%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$16.50
+59.6%
Probability: 10%
Base Target
$12.00
+16.1%
Probability: 32%
Bear Target
$7.15
-30.9%
Probability: 58%
Pivot$10.19
Resistance Level (R1)$15.43
Support Level (S1)$5.10
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 6%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The recent 'Blue List' status for the Optimus drone provides ONDS with a direct, streamlined procurement channel to the DOD, potentially unlocking contracts worth 3-5x the current $30M Israeli project. A bull case is driven by the potential for a $1.5 trillion US defense budget tailwind, which could re-rate the sector's multiples from 2x to 5x sales, targeting the high-water analyst mark of $25.
Strong 'whale' activity in the options market and a 1-year historical return profile that recently peaked at 124% suggests high volatility geared to the upside. If ONDS converts 40% of its current pipeline into firm orders, the stock will likely breach $15.00 resistance. I am 10% confident in this $16.50 target due to the heavy overhead supply from recent selling.Base Case:The stock is currently consolidating between the $8.50 floor and $12.50 ceiling as the market digests the influx of 13F filings and the recent capital raise. With a projected revenue jump toward $170M in FY26, the valuation should logically normalize around a 1.2x P/S ratio, projecting a steady climb over the next 5 months as demining operations commence.
The technical baseline suggests a 'wait-and-see' period where volume must stabilize below 300M shares to signal consolidation completion. This scenario assumes zero further dilution and steady contract flow. I am 32% confident we see a moderate 16% appreciation to $12.00 by mid-year as fundamental growth begins to offset technical weakness.Bear Case:Price action over the last 5 weeks has established a clear lower-high pattern ($13.69 to $10.34), a 24.4% decline triggered by market absorption of the $8.4M preferred stock dilution. This is significant because the 20-day EMA ($11.08) has now become hard resistance, with the stock failing to close above it for three consecutive sessions despite the positive demining contract news.
The primary risk to this downside is the massive $170M-$180M FY26 revenue guidance which provides a floor; however, historical execution gaps suggest a 62% probability of retracing to the significant support level at $6.80 within the next 5 months. Risk factor: Faster-than-expected NATO integration of Rotron Aero could spark a short squeeze. I am 58% confident in a $7.15 target based on current distribution patterns.
Strong 'whale' activity in the options market and a 1-year historical return profile that recently peaked at 124% suggests high volatility geared to the upside. If ONDS converts 40% of its current pipeline into firm orders, the stock will likely breach $15.00 resistance. I am 10% confident in this $16.50 target due to the heavy overhead supply from recent selling.Base Case:The stock is currently consolidating between the $8.50 floor and $12.50 ceiling as the market digests the influx of 13F filings and the recent capital raise. With a projected revenue jump toward $170M in FY26, the valuation should logically normalize around a 1.2x P/S ratio, projecting a steady climb over the next 5 months as demining operations commence.
The technical baseline suggests a 'wait-and-see' period where volume must stabilize below 300M shares to signal consolidation completion. This scenario assumes zero further dilution and steady contract flow. I am 32% confident we see a moderate 16% appreciation to $12.00 by mid-year as fundamental growth begins to offset technical weakness.Bear Case:Price action over the last 5 weeks has established a clear lower-high pattern ($13.69 to $10.34), a 24.4% decline triggered by market absorption of the $8.4M preferred stock dilution. This is significant because the 20-day EMA ($11.08) has now become hard resistance, with the stock failing to close above it for three consecutive sessions despite the positive demining contract news.
The primary risk to this downside is the massive $170M-$180M FY26 revenue guidance which provides a floor; however, historical execution gaps suggest a 62% probability of retracing to the significant support level at $6.80 within the next 5 months. Risk factor: Faster-than-expected NATO integration of Rotron Aero could spark a short squeeze. I am 58% confident in a $7.15 target based on current distribution patterns.
Analyst Ratings
100.0%of 2 ratings
Buy
100.00%
Hold
0.00%
Sell
0.00%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | WallStreetZen
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.82 (Positive)
- Ondas' 4M Defense secured a $30 million multi-year demining program in Israel, representing one of the largest land-clearance projects in the region's history.
- The company dramatically raised its FY26 revenue target to a range of $170M - $180M, compared to an expected FY25 revenue of roughly $48M - $50M.
- HC Wainwright & Co. doubled its price target for ONDS from $12 to $25, maintaining a Buy rating following the company's strategic pivot toward defense.
- Ondas is acquiring UK-based Rotron Aero to integrate long-range autonomous aircraft and strike platforms into its defense and security lineup.
- The Optimus drone earned 'Blue List' status from the Defense Contract Management Agency, ensuring compliance with cybersecurity standards for rapid federal procurement.
- Subsidiary Ondas Networks secured an $8.4 million Series B Preferred Stock agreement to bolster its balance sheet for upcoming growth phases.
- Investors should note that recent stock volatility was driven by a registered direct offering intended to raise capital, which temporarily pressured shares despite bullish fundamental news.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$10.29
MACD
Bullish
RSI (14)
55.81
Volume
-17% below avg
*Watch for short below $5.1 support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 10, 2026 | 07:29 AM
Signals & Anomalies
- Volume-Price Breakout ClusterBetween day 12 and 13, volume surged to a peak of 711.5M shares, representing a 1.4x increase above the 20-day average. This massive liquidity event coincided with a price bottom at $5.48, followed by a sustained recovery toward $9.91, signaling high-conviction institutional accumulation at lower price tiers.
- Bullish Engulfing Reversal PatternTechnical analysis tools detected 2 CDLENGULFING patterns during the period. The most recent signal at the $7.18 support level preceded a significant jump to $9.91, confirming a shift in market sentiment from aggressive selling to buyer dominance supported by a 50% technical success rate.
- Volatility Expansion and Mean ReversionThe stock experienced extreme volatility with a wide range between the period high of $15.28 and low of $4.95. After hitting the cycle low on day 14, price action established a series of higher lows, eventually reclaiming $9.91, suggesting the market has successfully re-priced the asset following the 'temporary stock dip' mentioned in the narrative.
- Institutional Whale Option Activity AlignmentHigh volume sessions ranging from 440M to 600M shares align with news of 'whale' activity in the options market. This unusual volume profile suggests that the strategic pivot to defense autonomy and the $30M demining contract are being factored into price movements through heavy derivative-driven positioning.
Market Regimebearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- Full Deployment Announcement: Middle East Drone Infrastructure ProjectTBD
- Annual Shareholders Meeting2026-06-18
- Ondas Networks IEEE 802.16 Standard Update2026-05-12
- Ondas Autonomous Systems (OAS) Product Showcase2026-04-14 / 2026-04-16
- Projected Q4 2025 and Full Year Earnings Call2026-03-24