Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)|90dModal Stance
slightly bearish
Probability Score22%
Forecast Chart
Base Target
Bull Target
Bear Target
Bull Target
$258.40
+24.0%
Probability: 26%
Base Target
$228.00
+9.4%
Probability: 52%
Bear Target
$182.50
-12.4%
Probability: 22%
Pivot$222.04
Resistance Level (R1)$253.36
Support Level (S1)$177.12
Chance of breaking S1 in 72h: 28%
Why the Model thinks this
Bull Case:The multi-year GPU supply agreement with OpenAI and the aggressive roadmap for the MI350/MI400 series are the primary drivers for a bullish recovery. Historically, when CEO Lisa Su reiterates an 'aggressive accelerator roadmap' during a sell-off, the subsequent 2-month return averages 15-20% as long-term buyers accumulate at a discount. The current $208 level represents a massive 'buy the dip' opportunity given the 0.73x PEG ratio, which is significantly lower than its historical 5-year average of 1.1x during growth cycles.
Increased market share gains from Intel in the server CPU space and the massive volume spike indicating seller exhaustion provide the technical foundation for a rally toward previous resistance at $260. Risk: Geopolitical escalation in trade restrictions for AI chips. I am 26% confident we see a sharp rebound to $258.40 within 2 months as supply concerns are proven to be transitory.Base Case:AMD's fundamental strength in the Data Center segment (39% growth) acted as a primary buffer, suggesting the stock will enter a consolidation phase between $210 and $235 over the next 2 months. The EPS beat of $1.53 vs $1.32 shows high operational efficiency even amidst supply constraints, suggesting value-based support is forming. The current P/E multiple is being supported by $650 billion in projected AI CapEx from cloud providers through 2026, which ensures a floor on chip demand regardless of short-term volatility.
Technical indicators show the stock is attempting to stabilize after testing the $190 psychological support. This level has historically held on high volume over the last year. Risk: Macroeconomic weakness or a delay in the MI350 launch could push the price lower. I am 52% confident the stock will settle near $228.00 as the market accepts the 'digestion' narrative.Bear Case:Supply chain friction in the China market and cautious Q1 guidance of $9.8 billion are the primary drivers for a bearish outlook. The reported server CPU delivery delays stretching into several months threaten to cap near-term revenue potential just as hyperscalers enter a 'digestion period' for AI spending. Historically, when AMD experiences a multi-week failed breakout above $250 followed by a 300M+ volume sell-off, the stock tends to retest long-term support levels near $175.50 (16% downside) to flush out weak hands.
Secondary factors include a rising PEG ratio if earnings growth decelerates and continued dominance by Nvidia in the premium GPU tier. Risk: A faster-than-expected recovery in logistics or an unannounced partnership could spark a short squeeze. I am 22% confident we see $182.50 within 2 months while the market re-prices the guidance miss.
Increased market share gains from Intel in the server CPU space and the massive volume spike indicating seller exhaustion provide the technical foundation for a rally toward previous resistance at $260. Risk: Geopolitical escalation in trade restrictions for AI chips. I am 26% confident we see a sharp rebound to $258.40 within 2 months as supply concerns are proven to be transitory.Base Case:AMD's fundamental strength in the Data Center segment (39% growth) acted as a primary buffer, suggesting the stock will enter a consolidation phase between $210 and $235 over the next 2 months. The EPS beat of $1.53 vs $1.32 shows high operational efficiency even amidst supply constraints, suggesting value-based support is forming. The current P/E multiple is being supported by $650 billion in projected AI CapEx from cloud providers through 2026, which ensures a floor on chip demand regardless of short-term volatility.
Technical indicators show the stock is attempting to stabilize after testing the $190 psychological support. This level has historically held on high volume over the last year. Risk: Macroeconomic weakness or a delay in the MI350 launch could push the price lower. I am 52% confident the stock will settle near $228.00 as the market accepts the 'digestion' narrative.Bear Case:Supply chain friction in the China market and cautious Q1 guidance of $9.8 billion are the primary drivers for a bearish outlook. The reported server CPU delivery delays stretching into several months threaten to cap near-term revenue potential just as hyperscalers enter a 'digestion period' for AI spending. Historically, when AMD experiences a multi-week failed breakout above $250 followed by a 300M+ volume sell-off, the stock tends to retest long-term support levels near $175.50 (16% downside) to flush out weak hands.
Secondary factors include a rising PEG ratio if earnings growth decelerates and continued dominance by Nvidia in the premium GPU tier. Risk: A faster-than-expected recovery in logistics or an unannounced partnership could spark a short squeeze. I am 22% confident we see $182.50 within 2 months while the market re-prices the guidance miss.
Analyst Ratings
81.6%of 49 ratings
Buy
81.60%
Hold
16.30%
Sell
2.10%
Source(s): MarketBeat | TipRanks | Yahoo Finance | Zacks Investment Research | Wall Street Journal
Drivers of Forecast
News & Sentiment0.38 (Slightly Positive)
- AMD is warning Chinese customers of months-long server CPU delays due to AI infrastructure demand straining the global pipeline, which could impact near-term revenue realization in a $50 billion TAM region.
- Baird analyst Tristan Gerra reiterated an Outperform rating with a $300 price target, citing AMD's robust GPU momentum and expected benefits from massive hyperscaler AI spending.
- AMD has secured a critical multi-year GPU supply agreement with OpenAI and expanded its partnership with GIGABYTE for AI-integrated consumer PCs, diversifying its AI reach beyond the data center.
- Management has provided a bullish 2026 roadmap projecting 60% annual growth in data center revenues, driven by the MI350/MI400 accelerator pipeline and a 0.73x PEG ratio indicating long-term value.
- Cathie Wood's ARK ETFs purchased over 141,000 shares of AMD following the post-earnings selloff, signaling institutional confidence in the stock's recovery as a key player in the AI hardware build-out.
- Despite a Q4 2025 record revenue of $10.27B, the 17% stock slide was primarily caused by a conservative Q1 revenue outlook of $9.8 billion and concerns over how quickly AI demand converts to immediate cash flow.
- KeyBanc lifted its price target to $300, noting that server demand is defying seasonal weakness and that the Helios chip will likely narrow the competitive gap with Nvidia's flagship offerings.
- Morgan Stanley slightly lowered its target from $260 to $255 while maintaining an equal-weight rating, suggesting that while the quarter was strong, the stock faces an 'uncomfortable backdrop' regarding valuation.
Technical Indicators
MA (50)
$221.6
MACD
Bearish
RSI (14)
50.22
Volume
+23% above avg
*Weakness near $177.12 — monitor for support breakdown
Analysis Date
Feb 08, 2026 | 12:33 AM
Signals & Anomalies
- Extreme Volatility Expansion and High-Volume RejectionAMD exhibited a massive 61.93-point intraday range (High 252.65 to Low 190.72) on 306M volume, representing 2x to 3x the typical volume of subsequent sessions. This 'blow-off' price action followed by multiple CDLENGULFING patterns suggests a violent shift in market regime from trending to high-volatility range-bound trading.
- Failed Breakout and Bearish Mean ReversionAfter a peak at 266.96, the stock failed to sustain levels above 260.00, closing significantly lower at 231.83 and eventually 203.17. This 23.9% drawdown from the local high confirms that the 260.00-267.00 zone acts as heavy institutional supply, leading to a bearish trend reversal in the short term.
- Psychological Support Level TestPrice action has found significant recurring interest near the 200.00-210.00 range, with the most recent close at 210.78 and a previous low of 197.53. This area aligns with the 'buy the dip' consensus mentioned in analyst reports and serves as a critical structural support that must hold to prevent a larger correction.
- Volume-Price Divergence on Recovery AttemptsWhile the initial sell-off occurred on 306M shares, recent recovery attempts have seen volume dry up significantly to 68M and 90M shares. This declining volume during price bounces indicates a lack of conviction among buyers, suggesting the current stabilization near 210.00 may be fragile without a fresh catalyst.
Market Regimeslightly bearish
Upcoming Catalysts
- AMD Instinct MI400 Series GPU Production MilestoneTBD
- Annual Stockholder MeetingTBD
- Q2 2026 Earnings Call2026-07-28
- Computex 2026 Keynote - Next-Gen Ryzen/Epyc Roadmap2026-06-02 / 2026-06-05
- Q1 2026 Earnings Call2026-04-28